According to the Israeli Channel 13, the Jewish state’s Cabinet has decided to deliver a "special" strike against Iran in response to its missile attack of October 1, 2024. Thereby it wants to end the incident with a response that does not entail any exchange of blows with the Islamic Republic, senior Israeli officials familiar with operation details claim. At least in the near future.
This should be read as Tel Aviv’s intent to carry out a powerful attack on Iran's most vital military, industrial, fuel, and energy facilities so as to inflict critical damage to both its military capabilities and economic infrastructure. This is expected to cause a sharp surge in popular discontent with policies by the Iranian ayatollahs, mass defiance of the government, popular protests against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and a change of the existing regime. It is in this case alone that Israel believes it can ensure its safety for a relatively extended period.
The sides have exchanged bellicose statements and apparently started preparing for a decisive escalation.
Admittedly, Israel’s military and political leadership has been nourishing plans to strike Iran and overthrow its clerical regime for over 40 years. However, though there was a time when the Israelis relied on the military-technical assistance from the Americans and Europeans, now Washington is not particularly eager to interfere in this unpredictable confrontation. "If I were them, I would look for an alternative," Joe Biden said in response to the decision by Benjamin Netanyahu's Cabinet.
October 7 marked the anniversary of HAMAS’ terrorist action against the Israeli civilians. It is entirely possible that leaders of that country will launch an attack on Iran in the next few days.
What targets may be prioritized for strikes?
First of all, the Israelis are interested in destroying or taking out enterprises engaged in producing enriched uranium, along with major scientific centers associated with the national nuclear energy program. All of them are located deep underground, so the strikes would involve special high-power ammunition.
The next most important targets may be the headquarters, communication centers and control points of the IRGC forces, missile launcher emplacement sites, missile weapon storage depots, individual factories manufacturing rocket components or unmanned aerial vehicles. Air force bases will also be targeted.
But the first strike is going to come against Iran's proven air defense and missile defense. Without suppressing the anti-aircraft system, subsequent missile and air attacks may prove ineffective. It is hard to assess the quality of Iranian air defense equipment over the lack of data on its use on the example of Syria, where the Israelis have all but freely destroyed Iranian warehouses and weaponry storage sites. The Islamic Republic’s military are armed with a Russian S-300 air defense system set (a regiment of three divisions). And yet, the Persian expertise in running the combat and technical numbers is totally unknown.
The Iranians have attained considerable success in the production and use of electronic warfare (EW). Their devices have made it possible to neutralize American reconnaissance UAVs, and in some cases even forced them to land. But it is still an open question how effective these means will be against Israeli aircraft or cruise missiles.
Also, analysts in Israel predict a pending attack on Iran's fuel storage facilities in the Persian Gulf ports as Tel Aviv has extensive experience in this regard, having destroyed most facilities of the kind in northern Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
At the same time, Israel faces a serious challenge for a successful operation which is an acute shortage of heavy tanker aircraft needed to provide jet fuel to all the fighters heading for fire lines. While earlier the Israelis planned to attract several dozen American tankers for this purpose, now Washington may refuse technical assistance to Tel Aviv, because Tehran will certainly deem it as direct US engagement in the attack against Iran.
And one more thing. In its early plans, the Israeli leadership used to rely on the unhindered passage of its combat and auxiliary aircraft over Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries of the Peninsula. Today, this is hardly possible, and Israel will therefore inevitably have to use a way longer route over the Red and Arabian Seas, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. However, one may assume that arrogance and the inherent miscalculation will push the Jews to launch their fighters through Iraq. This country has no powerful air defenses, and the functioning one won’t take the Israelis long to handle with. Besides, the Iraqi leadership has recently urged commanders of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq movement to abandon plans of attacking American military facilities based in the country. In other words, they have to manifest restraint when somehow acting against Israel.
That's been the prospect of Israel going to war with Iran.
