Global South leaders gather in Russia’s Kazan to discuss the future of BRICS; the BRICS group is bringing India and China closer together; and the US seeks to reconcile Lebanon and Israel. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Media: Global South leaders gather in Russia’s Kazan

The 16th summit of the BRICS group, chaired by Russia, has commenced in Kazan. This is the most representative event in BRICS history. According to Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov, it brings together 36 countries and six international organizations, with 22 delegations led by top officials. The summit’s goal is to shift the focus from vague political declarations to specific decisions, as reported by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Russia believes that the main reason BRICS is attractive to countries of the Global South is its rejection of the outdated model of international relations based on Western dictates. Bridging differences in the national interests of member states will determine BRICS’ future and have significant consequences for the world order. The Kazan summit will need to develop new criteria for BRICS' future activities.

Andrey Kortunov, research director of the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out that the months leading up to the BRICS Summit in Kazan were filled with multilateral meetings, with ministers and other high-ranking officials discussing a wide range of issues. According to Kortunov, a key goal of the summit is to gradually focus on specific decisions reflecting the fundamental interests of developing countries. He believes that as BRICS progresses, it will become a new global laboratory for member states and their partners to test new models for multilateral cooperation and present related initiatives at the United Nations and G20 platforms, as well as other universal institutions and forums.

"The fact that Russia has been able to arrange an event of such scale is a clear indication that BRICS has established itself as an important international platform. Many globally influential countries have recognized it and now see Russia as a crucial partner in international relations," said Sergey Ordzhonikidze, former United Nations Under-Secretary and ex-Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, to Izvestia. According to him, the BRICS Summit is one of the major international events of geopolitical importance. The scale of the event makes it clear that despite the West’s expectations, Russia’s international authority has not diminished, and Moscow has not found itself isolated.

Media: BRICS bringing India and China closer together

Russian President Vladimir Putin held meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the first day of the BRICS Summit in Kazan. The two countries, founding members of the BRICS group, aim to move beyond bilateral disputes to advance the unifying agenda of this coalition of like-minded nations, Kommersant reports.

Shortly before the BRICS summit, signs of a thaw in relations between China and India emerged, previously overshadowed by a border conflict in the Himalayas. It was announced on the eve of the Kazan summit that Beijing and New Delhi had reached an agreement on patrolling the line of actual control on their border, which is expected to help ease tensions in the region.

Indian expert Atul Aneja, a member of the advisory board at the Center of Geoeconomics for the Global South, emphasizes that reducing geopolitical tensions among member states should be one of BRICS’ goals. According to him, attention must be paid to issues such as border disputes between India and China, who are key BRICS players. Similarly, Iran and Saudi Arabia are involved in a proxy war in Yemen, despite a recent warming in relations. On the African continent, tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia—two new BRICS members—persist due to the construction of a major dam on the Nile River. The conclusion is clear: BRICS needs an internal mechanism to address tensions among member states, the Indian expert explained.

Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Pacific Region Group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "India and China are returning to a more or less normal situation that existed before the coronavirus pandemic and the Galwan Valley incident." He added, "It’s important to note that before these events, relations between India and China were not strained. Modi visited the Chinese city of Wuhan, and subsequently, Xi Jinping visited India. Borders were then closed due to the pandemic, and a skirmish occurred, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indians and four Chinese. Now, there is an opportunity to improve relations, which is positive," the expert said.

Izvestia: US seeks peace amid Lebanon-Israel strain

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on another tour of the Middle East. The main goal of his trip is to resume talks on ending the conflict in the Gaza Strip, secure the release of Israeli hostages, and address the Lebanese conflict, Izvestia reports.

Israel has set forth stringent conditions: it seeks control over Lebanon’s border areas and airspace. Beirut is outraged by these demands, as they violate the country’s sovereignty.

Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a research fellow at the Department of Middle and Post-Soviet East of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, noted that Blinken’s previous trips have not been successful. He highlighted Beirut's strong opposition to Israel’s demands. "This is quite an alarming sign because Lebanon represents a microcosm of the Middle East, where divisions between the Sunni and Shia blocs are clear," he explained.

Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov emphasized that Israel’s demand for control over Lebanese airspace is a breach of Lebanon’s sovereignty. "It’s hard to imagine that Russia, for example, would agree to such a provision in a new UN Security Council resolution. China would also likely use its veto," the analyst noted. "Regarding a new resolution that considers Resolution 1701, a balanced document needs to be adopted. However, Israel will oppose it due to its demands on Hezbollah and Lebanon. Logical arguments for a ceasefire and troop withdrawal will face resistance from West Jerusalem," the political scientist asserted.

Ontikov is confident that if Israel refuses, such a resolution will not be approved, as the US will block it. "Should the Biden administration decide to pass the resolution, Washington would face criticism from the Israeli authorities, which Democrats want to avoid ahead of the election. The situation is a stalemate, making constructive decisions difficult and unconstructive ones likely to be blocked," Ontikov concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Seoul weighs military support for Ukraine amid rising tensions

As Russian forces make advances in the special military operation zone, the Korean issue has become one of the most widely discussed topics in the West. Media outlets report that North Korean service members are allegedly engaged in combat against the Ukrainian army, and that Seoul is prepared to respond by sending weapons, military intelligence officers, and interpreters to Ukraine. Previously, the US, France, and the United Kingdom promised to send military experts to assist Kiev. All this points to the risk of even greater escalation, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.

Russian authorities continue to deny reports of North Korean troops' involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western media, citing anonymous sources, report that the South Korean government may reconsider its policy of not providing weapons to Ukraine. The Yonhap news agency stated that Seoul might begin supplying 155 mm artillery rounds to Kiev. South Korea could also provide Ukraine with K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 tanks, and Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems, which are capable of hitting targets up to 80 kilometers away, with upgraded versions having a range of up to 200 kilometers.

Such steps by Seoul, which claims to be the world's fourth-largest arms exporter after the US, Russia, and France, are seen as an alarming sign globally, including in Russia.

Colonel (Ret.) Nikolay Shulgin, a military expert, pointed out that South Korea had provided about 300,000 155 mm artillery rounds to third countries before the Ukrainian army's offensive in the summer of 2023. "It happened that South Korea’s supplies of tanks and self-propelled vehicles enabled Poland to provide the armored equipment it no longer needed to Ukraine. Kiev received over 200 T-72 tanks and other heavy weapons from Warsaw. Now, Seoul is effectively threatening to arrange direct supplies to the Ukrainian army. This certainly signifies an escalation of the conflict," Shulgin said.

However, the expert is confident that Russia will be able to persuade Seoul to abandon the idea of direct military support for Kiev.

Kommersant: Russia's fertilizer exports surge amid high demand and attractive pricing

High demand from key importers and competitive prices are driving an increase in Russia’s exports of mineral fertilizers. According to the Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI) information and consulting agency, as reported by Kommersant, exports are growing due to the increased supplies of carbamide and potassium chloride.

In the first nine months of 2024, Russia’s exports of carbamide and potassium chloride grew by 7% and 40% year-on-year, respectively. The MMI indicates that the United States, India, and Brazil were the main importers. Russia’s share of the US market rose from 22% to 26% over the year. Brazil, China, and the US are the main importers of Russian potassium chloride, with exports to these countries growing by 30%, 105%, and 58% year-on-year, respectively, in the first eight months of 2024.

Maxim Bratchikov, head of the fertilizer market department, emphasizes that the US has always been a significant importer of carbamide. The expert notes that high domestic demand, the attractive pricing of Russian fertilizers, and global factors affecting the supply-demand relationship, including restrictions on Chinese exports and major Indian tenders, are fueling the growth of Russian supplies.

The MMI reports that the NFL company’s Indian tender, which concluded on September 23, redirected carbamide flows to South Asia. Predominantly Russian and Middle Eastern suppliers were selected. Overall, MMI analysts observe that the growth in Russia’s carbamide exports was recorded in most key regions in 2024, driven by increasing demand for Russian fertilizers.

Experts from the Price Index Center highlight that due to high domestic demand, India may soon announce a new tender, which will likely maintain high prices. Seasonal demand is expected to prompt other major consumers, such as Brazil and Europe, to increase imports as China’s export restrictions shift the balance of global demand in favor of exporters.

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