Well, the United States has approached perhaps the most challenging and dramatic presidential election in its entire history. The Democratic Party is represented by current Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republicans have chosen ex-President Donald Trump as their nominee.
The drama of the situation lies in the fact that supporters of either party have never been so hostile and aggressive against each other. Neither side is ready, like it was in the past years, to composedly accept the victory of the other without going beyond the legal field. And therefore, many analysts say that regardless of the one declared winner of the race, the United States has found itself on the brink of civil war.
Let's say a few words about characters in the show, which is what the ongoing election actually is. The first one is Kamala Harris.
She received the status of a Democratic candidate in August, virtually without a preliminary party vote, after it became clear to every Dem member that President Biden's cognitive abilities were getting worse with every passing day. This became quite obvious in June, during the incumbent president’s televised debate with Trump. After a month and a half of fierce attempts by Biden and his entourage to retain the candidate’s status, the establishment forced him to quit the race and give way to Harris.
Her appointment — yes, the word is accurate — as the Democratic nominee was a hasty though logical decision: the banner fell from the president's hands, and the VP picked it up to raise again. At the moment, everyone was afraid to offer themselves as candidates, because it was pretty obvious that Trump could complete a sweep. Why stick out your neck then?
It's not even about Harris's candidacy not being the result of consensus among the Democrats. While looking for a likely candidate who could somehow stand up to Trump, Democrats urgently needed to create an illusion of having no issues with nominating someone else. The Democrats were obliged to do so to replace Biden, who allegedly withdrew from the race himself, and they had to do it immediately, so as not to detect the absence of candidates or give rise to gossip.
And Harris, obsessed with incredible pride and ambitions unsupported by anything over the four years as vice president, was glad to "save the day." And her promotion began, making the establishment’s propaganda machine start working at full power, presenting this inarticulate person as the only one able to save America from Trump. She was provided with "popular support" scores in opinion polls that was a mere tool for manipulating public opinion in the United States. POTUS candidates clearly vilify each other until blue in the face — this is yet another American tradition. But it's hard to disagree with Trump, who has called Kamala Harris a "low IQ person" and her running mate Tim Walz the "stupidest" man to ever run for VP.
As for Trump himself, he could be compared to an icebreaker confidently breaking its way forward through all the hummocks. Why is the establishment so afraid of him?
Trump is not a globalist in fact but an American-centrist, for want of a better word. Hence his slogan "Make America great again." Trump is going to bring industrial production back to the United States, but he is not a pioneer here, so it's not the point. What the Biden administration is doing today is equivalent to what Trump is calling for.
After all, European companies have been outsourcing their production to America due to reduced energy tariffs in the United States. In addition, there are also few real foreign policy differences between Trump and Biden and all the Democrats. For example, the number of anti-Russian sanctions imposed under Trump was not less than under Biden during his own term. And by and large, Trump has professed the same religious-dogma-like thesis about America’s uniqueness as a country that must bring its norms and rules to the rest of the world, imposing them on all the other peoples. America is the Shining City on the Hill, and beneath there are fetid sewage disposals that it has to clean up from time to time. And Trump's Americocentricity has not been running counter to the thesis altogether.
But how then does Trump differ from the Democrats? And why did he face four fake criminal cases that never worked, leaving him stay at large? Why was he shot twice?
This guy has been sharply distinguished from the Democrats by his negative approach to abortion rights, "gender politics" dominance, sexual minorities support, and certainly the current administration’s immigration policy, which has been causing a storm of indignation throughout the United States, not only in the Sun Belt.
Biden has actually connived at the massive immigrant influx across the southern border and their rapid legalization in the US territory. All of this did cost a lot of taxpayer money. But immigrants have replenished the democratic electorate given the imperfection of national electoral laws, as well as via accelerated legalization. Another couple of years later, the Democrats would win elections without any fraud, fully backed by the "new Americans". The flip side of the immigration crisis has been the rise of drug trafficking and street crime.
All these issues are now actively competing with the economic one, which has been traditionally crucial to ordinary American citizens. Everything else — the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the economic crisis in Europe — are of secondary importance for the time being.
Many experts have been tempted to predict the outcome of American elections. We proceed from the establishment’s understanding that, in spite of its opposition to Trump, the ex-president is to win the race. But the establishment has been clinging to the imperative of keeping Trump out of the White House. That is why he was shot twice and prosecuted. What should the "deep state" do in such a situation? Hence the great many suggestions in the non-systemic press of the United States about how the establishment would not allow Trump take up the reins. No one rules out a likely new assassination attempt on him. There was even talk about a deliberate global cyberattack on the United States to paralyze the vote count and proclaim Harris' victory. A potential artificial collapse of the financial system was also reported, which would allow introducing a state of emergency and cancelling elections. And, of course, Russia's "interference" favoring Trump has been hyped, which may allow the authorities to declare his victory illegitimate.
Meanwhile, a few days before the election, the heads of key liberal newspapers, namely The Washington Post, came up with a sudden announcement that their outlets were refusing to officially support "any of the candidates" for the sake of "respect for freedom of speech." In other words, they refused to support Harris, because they had been standing for her by generating a noisy chorus of "popular approval" and illusion of her "irreplaceability" for America.
This can be interpreted as the American mainstream media’s concern and care of their reputation. After all, by supporting Harris, they do risk losing people’s trust not only in the United States, but across the globe, since people read their publications far beyond US borders.
On the other hand, in this move by media controlled by the establishment and intel one may also see their coming to terms with Trump’s likely and quite expected victory. In this case, the reasoning by the American "deep state" stealthy spiders may boil down to the fact that falsification of voting results in favor of Harris might really lead to a riot by Trump supporters, to things getting out of control, or even to a civil war. And the establishment, i.e. money owners from Wall Street, will hardly benefit from this. The danger is that everyone in America will come off loser. And the Wall Street bigwigs are going to lose the most, because any riot in America will certainly entail a collapsed US dollar and entire financial system.
How can the establishment get out of this and save face? The salvation lies in the 12th Amendment to US Constitution adopted by Congress in 1803. It establishes the procedure for electing President and Vice President of the United States. For the current environment, the amendment’s peculiarity is that if none of the candidates gets 270 or more votes in the electoral college comprising 538 people, the vote is to be transferred to the House of Representatives.
With the current electoral college composition, a scenario with each candidate obtaining 269 is feasible when there are two of them only, which is a draw. But a candidate with a majority of elector votes may enjoy less than 270 if those are distributed among more than two candidates. And the current race also involves Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver (with Mike ter Maat as his running VP mate) and Green Party’s Jill Stein (Butch Ware as her running VP mate). By the way, there are other people on the list as well, such as founder of the US Pirate Party Brent Ellison. In theory, these characters may also get elector votes, moving the entire process to the House.
At the same time, not all of its 435 members do vote after all. The delegation of each state in the House is only given one vote, and victory requires a majority of states. The Republicans do have this majority now. Thus, with a tie in the electoral college, Trump would win the vote in the House.
This scenario is not that shameful to the establishment, which will have to recognize Trump as winner, while still saying that half of America voted for Harris anyway. But at the same time, this will bring down the intensity of social tension to avoid a riot primarily expected on the side of Trump followers, if the results get rigged to favor Harris.
Weighing heavily for the latter version is the fact that over the last two months and even the day before the election, all the forecasts and polls have shown equality of chances for both candidates.
Whatever the case, we are waiting for the vote in the United States and the announcement of its results. It won't be boring, you bet.
