American political scientists that are trying to be objective have argued about a widespread conviction that in foreign policy, President-elect Donald Trump is ready to get back to features that defined his first term in the White House. Among the future administration’s relevant priority issues are Russia and the war in Ukraine, the Middle East crisis, US relations with China, and the POTUS’s stance as regards NATO and European allies in the bloc.

Ukraine

Moscow is certainly most interested in Trump's policy along the Ukrainian track, especially given his numerous statements about going to end conflicts across the globe or prevent World War III. In less than a day after Trump was elected president, his advisers and assistants became known to have discussed scenarios for attaining a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) writes about this with reference to some anonymous sources.

"Donald Trump ’s promise to end the war in Ukraine by Inauguration Day now puts him in a position of having to choose between competing proposals from advisers united by a common thread — a sharp break from President Biden's ‘as long as it takes’ approach to arming Kiev," the outlets reports.

According to the WSJ, the plan that may be proposed by Trump suggests freezing the current front line and establishing a demilitarized zone along it. And security of the zone remains an open issue. The WSJ source ruled out American boots on the ground, along with the fact that the United States would have to finance this kind of "peacekeeping force." Trump's entourage is sure this should be up to the Europeans. Ukraine, in turn, has to abandon NATO membership plans for at least 20 years. And in exchange for Kiev's agreement to accept such an offer, Washington pledges it new weapons.

The moral to be drawn from all the above mentioned is that Trump does not have any specific plan for resolving the war in Ukraine. What we see today is just the formation of its relatively specific outlines. Moreover, the WSJ interlocutors have indicated that Trump will make the final — and probably last-minute — call himself.

To what extent does this meet the goals of Russian special military operation, especially considering that Team Trump’s "peaceful" theses that were leaked to the WSJ do imply his policy of force? What the American press has obtained from the president-elect's entourage hardly features any common ground between Trump's "wish-list" and Russian strategic goals. It is quite clear that freezing the conflict along the line of contact is unfeasible and unrealistic to Russia.

Another clear thing is that the "leak" to the press about contemplating peace scenarios in Ukraine is mere sounding out the situation, a test balloon thrown by Team Trump towards Russia in order to make their heads around our stance. And it does exist already. "We'll see after January," Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked if Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election would affect the situation in Ukraine.

By the way, what was leaked to the WSJ, as the newspaper itself notes, resembles the way Vice President-elect J. D. Vance has proposed to solve the conflict. The outlet also writes that the development of US foreign policy — and the Ukrainian issue with it — is going to be predetermined by a variety of characters with different visions of international environment. In particular, the new administration’s likely Defense Minister, ex-Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, may propose a plan in which Russia will not appear as the winner in the war. Meanwhile, other Trump advisers such as Richard Grenell, who is tipped for Secretary of State or National Security Adviser to the new president, are ready to give parts of Ukraine away to Russia for the sake of a peaceful settlement, WSJ goes on to say.

Middle East

Tensions escalating in the Middle East over Israeli war with HAMAS in the Gaza Strip and with Hezbollah in Lebanon, will appear among the most pressing issues in Trump's foreign policy. He has declared the need to end the war in Gaza. But how? Trump said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "achieve victory" because "the killing must stop." A rather ambiguous statement.

On the other hand, Trump has been critical of the Biden administration's call for a cease-fire, dubbbing it an attempt to "tie Israel's hands" and saying this would only give HAMAS time to regroup.

Moreover, Trump will proceed with his tough policy towards Iran, an existential enemy of Israel. And in this regard, there is a great danger that under Netanyahu the latter will seek drawing the Trump administration into military adventures against Iran, much more extensive than Israel itself has so far undertaken. The bet is on Trump’s all but pro-Israeli record as President of the United States.

China

As for the new administration's China policy, "to some extent President Joe Biden will just be passing the baton back to Trump," the Foreign Policy broadsheet notes. The fact is that the current administration inherited most of the tough approach to China from Trump's first term. And during his second one, he is likely to keep identifying China as major threat to US national security.

Throughout his first term, Trump was primarily focused on trade. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. My favorite word,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal, saying that his top priority with regard to China is to resume the trade war he started in 2018.

Trump calls for reducing US dependence on China for all the key goods. Biden retained the original tariffs imposed during Trump's first term, and added several more. Now, Trump is ready to go a lot further. Pledging tariffs of at least 60 percent on all the imports from China, Trump intends to achieve a complete severance of the world’s two largest economies — American and Chinese ones. A step to that effect would worsen the already tense bilateral relations.

Apart from trade with China, the US foreign policy’s Chinese track will include Taiwan. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly questioned the future scope of American support for the island, willing to use the same approach as with US NATO allies. "Taiwan should pay us for defense," Trump said in a July interview with Bloomberg Businessweek.

This kind of statements suggests that Trump will seek some kind of deal with Taiwan in exchange for further aid from the United States. He may well demand that Taiwan increase its military spending, which currently amounts to about 2.6% of its GDP.

In addition, Trump may insist on further investments by Taiwan in the US economy, as did Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC, which has already invested over $65bn in new factories in Arizona, FP writes with an eye to views by Taiwanese experts.

Although Trump may conduct this kind of tough business with Taiwan, experts believe that he will not drop its support. Trump's already mentioned adviser Mike Pompeo, being a staunch supporter of Taiwan, has called for official recognition of its independence. Trump himself adheres to the "policy of strategic ambiguity," without specifically answering the question whether the US military is going to defend Taiwan if attacked or blockaded by China.