The US approves Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia; Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin provokes anger in the German opposition; and the EU may escalate pressure on Moscow if Trump scales back support for Kiev. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Izvestia: US approves Ukraine's use of long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia

The US, France, and the UK have granted Ukraine permission to use Western-donated long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, Izvestia writes, citing Western media. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that such attacks would signal NATO countries’ involvement in a conflict with Moscow. Experts believe the outgoing US administration is seeking to escalate tensions as much as possible before US President-elect Donald Trump assumes office.

Incumbent US President Joe Biden wants to place Trump in a no-win situation, American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin said. "America may be dragged into a war, and Trump will have to deal with the trouble that Biden started. Approving such strikes means escalation between Russia and the US, and a deliberate one," the analyst added.

The White House also plans to quickly provide Ukraine with the final package of security assistance worth $6 billion for weapons purchases, Politico reported. According to Higher School of Economics expert Yegor Toropov, the fact that Biden’s term will end soon and he does not need to seek re-election gives him a free hand.

"Those who warned that the forces that don’t want the war in Ukraine to end may stage provocations before Trump returns to the White House on January 20 were correct. London, Paris, and a part of the Washington establishment, including Republicans, were at the forefront of the instigators," remarked Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow.

Meanwhile, military expert Viktor Litovkin points out that the Russian Armed Forces have already intercepted US-made ATACMS missiles during attacks near Crimea’s coast. Unlike British-made Storm Shadow and French-made SCALP missiles, ATACMS are ground-based weapons that can be launched by a HIMARS launcher, so Russia will need to identify and target them, the expert said.

Vedomosti: Chancellor’s call with Putin provokes backlash from German opposition

The German opposition has condemned Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his Friday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first such conversation since December 2022. Scholz urged Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine and open a political dialogue with Kiev, stressing that Berlin would continue to assist Ukraine for as long as necessary. Putin, in turn, noted that Moscow had never refused to hold talks with Kiev and was ready to resume the process interrupted by Ukraine, as reported by Vedomosti.

Scholz made the call a week after the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition. A snap election is set to take place no later than the end of March. This was more of a symbolic gesture that will unlikely lead to a full-fledged negotiation process, Alexander Kamkin, researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, observed.

In his view, the call was primarily aimed at the domestic audience in Germany. "Given the setback his party faced in the local elections in September, Scholz realizes that his career is at risk, which is why he seeks to appeal to his rivals, such as the Alternative for Germany party and Sahra Wagenknecht, who advocate for resuming dialogue with Moscow," the expert explained.

Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov believes that the Russian president’s communication with European leaders is unlikely to be meaningful at this stage. "The positions of Moscow, Washington, and Kiev as the key parties to the conflict will be decisive in terms of a peace agreement. The others will play a secondary role at best," Lukyanov stated.

Notably, Scholz decided to call Putin after it became clear that Washington was prepared to alter its position on Ukraine, the analyst pointed out. He believes the Europeans also want to show Europe’s capacity to take proactive steps. "Still, unlike the US, the European Union has little to offer. Putin’s conversations with European leaders will resemble an exchange of platitudes until the US makes a move," Lukyanov emphasized.

Izvestia: EU may intensify pressure on Moscow if Trump reduces support for Kiev

The European Union’s restrictions against Russia may be lifted only after the conflict in Ukraine ends, a European Commission spokesperson told Izvestia. For now, the EU should not be expected to reduce pressure on Russia; on the contrary, another package of sanctions is expected to be adopted in January. Brussels is trying to make it clear that its position on the crisis will not change despite Donald Trump taking office in the US.

A European diplomatic source confirmed to the newspaper that some countries were ready to increase military assistance to Kiev in case Washington discontinues helping Ukraine under Trump. Russian International Affairs Council Director General Ivan Timofeev does not rule out that the EU will expand its role in military support for Kiev, especially since Brussels plans to put the union’s economy on a war footing.

"The size of US military assistance for Kiev exceeds that of European Union countries. However, support from European NATO members should not be underestimated. In particular, France supplies Ukraine with certain weapons, including self-propelled artillery systems and wheeled tanks. The same goes for Germany. France is unlikely to fully replace US aid, but the US will not completely end assistance because it is enshrined in law. The new president will be able to make some changes, but there will be no major reduction," the expert stressed.

"If Trump significantly or completely reduces assistance to Ukraine, Europe will have to revise its approach and position. It will not have the strength to do so alone, which is already clear, even with US assistance for Kiev still in place. Europe will need to adapt to US policy. This is going to be a turning point in this protracted conflict, which has become pan-European," Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, observed.

Vedomosti: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping hold final meeting as leaders of their countries

President Joe Biden of the United States and President Xi Jinping of China met on the sidelines of an APEC summit in Peru. They reviewed the two countries' relations over the past four years, Vedomosti reports.

The Chinese leader acknowledged that there had been both ups and downs, but relations had remained largely stable. Biden expressed concerns about China’s alleged support for the Russian defense industry, while Xi asserted that Beijing’s position on the Ukraine issue still focused on peace mediation efforts. On the topic of Taiwan, Biden called on China to end its military activities around the island; Xi, in turn, described actions aimed at "Taiwan’s independence" as incompatible with peace and stability in the region.

"It’s quite possible to send a message to the incoming US president through the outgoing one," Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, suggested. Xi pointed to the issues on which no discussions would take place, but he said nothing about economic pressure on China, the expert emphasized. "China sees it as an unpleasant but understandable situation," Maslov added. However, the Taiwan issue is critical for China, as it is tied to the sustainability of its state doctrine. "China will take very serious retaliatory measures here, though it’s uncertain what those measures will be," the expert noted.

"Trump will have to take the red lines set by Xi into account," Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, underscored. "In Trump’s view, the challenges the US faces are largely rooted in economic relations with China. These include a trade imbalance, China’s rapid technological advancement, and its growing potential to become the world’s dominant power," the analyst explained. In general, US-China relations are likely to worsen, he added. However, efforts to reach an agreement may occur before that happens. "Trump is sure to escalate trade wars to strengthen US positions," Sokolshchik predicted.

Media: European gas prices could double this winter

Gas prices in Europe may increase significantly this coming winter, potentially surpassing $1000 per cubic meter, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. The main factor affecting prices on the European market is uncertainty, as even minor developments can trigger a surge in prices, analysts explain. After Austria’s OMV company warned of a potential halt in Russian gas supplies on November 15, European gas prices reached a yearly high, exceeding $500 per cubic meter.

"The current economic and political situation in Europe makes it clear that energy prices on the European market will remain highly volatile. A scenario where gas prices double in the winter is certainly possible," Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the supervisory board at the Reliable Partner association of energy producers and suppliers, said.

High gas prices are not as dangerous for the European economy as price volatility, Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out. "How can you make plans for production volumes and the introduction of new industrial facilities when you don’t know what the gas price will be?" the expert asked.

On January 1, 2025, Russia will officially stop gas transit through Ukraine as the relevant contract expires. The European Commission says it is prepared for this, as gas supplies to Europe are fully secured. However, Europe still depends on Russian gas, otherwise, it would have already phased it out, Alexey Grivach, deputy director general of the National Energy Security Fund, argued. Still, some political forces in Europe are pushing for further escalation of the conflict with Russia, which could worsen the European Union’s energy crisis. This is why the issue of Ukraine’s gas transit remains uncertain, the expert explained.

Grivach also told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the upward trend in European gas prices will persist until the issue of gas supplies via Ukraine is settled. Prices will also continue to strongly react to negative factors affecting demand (such as weather) and supply (including supplies from other sources, wind power generation, the availability of nuclear energy, and gas demand in Asia).

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