Israel approves a US ceasefire deal in its conflict with Lebanon’s Hezbollah; Georgia’s newly elected parliament convenes amid ongoing protests. Meanwhile, an independent far-right politician surges ahead in the first round of the presidential election in Romania. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Media: Israel approves US ceasefire agreement in conflict with Hezbollah
Israel has endorsed the key points of a ceasefire agreement with the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group, Israeli media outlets Kan, Ynet, and Haaretz reported, citing sources from the Arab republic, the Jewish state, and the United States. According to these reports, the preliminary decision was made following consultations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. A truce may be announced soon.
The deal would end Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon for a two-month ceasefire, during which Hezbollah would withdraw its troops and heavy weaponry from the border. The initiative also proposes the creation of a US-led international committee to oversee the implementation of the agreement. In exchange, Washington would permit its ally in the Middle East to use force if the committee finds that Hezbollah breaches the terms of the deal.
Rumors of a ceasefire emerged after Lebanon launched around 250 rockets at Israel on November 24. Several Israelis were injured in the attack, according to Israeli police. The attack followed Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, which resulted in 29 fatalities, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The Lebanese death toll has now exceeded 3,600 since October 2023.
Israel would benefit from a ceasefire with Hezbollah, as it would not conflict with another truce—with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, said Kirill Semyonov, an expert from the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), in an interview with Vedomosti. According to Semyonov, a ceasefire would allow Israel to reallocate forces from the Lebanese front to continue its war with Palestinian radicals. "While the Jewish state does not stand a chance of winning the war in Lebanon anyway, it will have a chance to stop hostilities there," the expert explained.
The US peace plan does not appear to be entirely beneficial to the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, a coalition of countries and military groups loyal to the Islamic Republic, Anton Mardasov, a Middle East expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The United States developed the plan jointly with Israel to allow the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to expand its operations should Lebanon deviate from the terms of the agreement," Mardasov said. However, he noted that Hezbollah does require a pause. "Iran, too, despite its previous tensions with Donald Trump, would like to show readiness for a potential deal, particularly on nuclear weapons, once he returns to office," Mardasov concluded.
Izvestia: New parliament convenes in Georgia amid ongoing protests
On November 25, the newly elected parliament held its inaugural session in Georgia. The country had an election a month ago, which was won by the Georgian Dream party. Since then, the opposition, which advocates for a closer relationship with the West, has organized protests. On Sunday, opposition groups began another rally in downtown Tbilisi, with protesters staying overnight in front of the parliament building, threatening to disrupt the first legislative session. In response, the Georgian parliament raised the security level to yellow.
By law, the president convenes the first parliamentary session, but November 25 marked the first time the head of state did not do so. However, this move was expected, as Salome Zourabichvili is the opposition leader.
Overall, the opposition holds the Georgian Dream responsible for the deteriorating relations with the West, also accusing the party of pursuing allegedly pro-Russian policies. The ruling party’s foreign policy approach will largely remain unchanged, Georgian Dream member Shota Khabareli told Izvestia, as Georgia remains committed to European integration and improving relations with the European Union. "We will see how it goes with Moscow down the road. This depends both on them and on us. But that is the future, and I cannot say in advance how [the country] will maintain its relations with Russia. No scenario can be excluded," Khabareli said when asked whether the party plans to strengthen relations with Moscow or if it rules out continued dialogue.
Mamuka Pipiya, international secretary of the Solidarity for Peace party, sees direct involvement from the West, whose politicians address rallies and encourage protests. "The West will make increasingly sophisticated attempts to promote protests, but it no longer has any authority, as the government has acted cautiously and consistently," he told Izvestia. He expects protests to last longer, albeit remaining small in number.
The West's role in the rallies is also evident to Giorgi Lomia, leader of the Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. In his view, the situation in the republic has become more tense than it was in 2020, when the previous election was held. Back then, the inaugural session of parliament was attended by the president, as well as Georgian diplomats and spiritual leaders, the politician recalled. The situation may stabilize if, for example, the EU's technical mission acknowledges the results of the election, he said.
Vedomosti: Georgescu unexpectedly ahead in first round of voting in Romania
Despite predictions, the first round of Sunday’s presidential election in Romania was won by independent far-right politician Calin Georgescu. He scored 22.95% of the vote, according to the country’s electoral authority. Liberal reformer Elena Lasconi placed second with 19.17%, followed by leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu with 19.15%. News agency NPR reported that, for the first time since the fall of the Nicolae Ceau·escu regime 35 years ago, Romania’s Social Democrats did not make it to the runoff election, which shocked the Romanian establishment. The second round will take place on December 8, and on December 1, the country will hold a parliamentary election that will determine who heads the government.
Georgescu actively campaigned on TikTok, calling for a reduction in food import dependence and an end to support for Ukraine. He criticized NATO’s missile shield over Romania as "a diplomatic shame," arguing that the alliance itself would not protect his country in the event of an attack. Earlier, Georgescu expressed his respect for Russian culture and lauded Russian President Vladimir Putin as "a man who loves his country." He has also praised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s skills as a negotiator.
The outcome of the elections in Romania is crucial due to the country’s strategic position in Europe and NATO. Romania shares a 400-km border with Ukraine, and the North Atlantic Alliance has military bases on its territory. Additionally, a Ukrainian grain export route runs across Romania.
The role of Romania in the EU and NATO cannot be underestimated, Andrey Kortunov, research director of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Vedomosti. In the Balkans, Romania is a regional power, or a country with ambitions for regional influence, he explained. Furthermore, Romania has access to the Black Sea and hosts air defense facilities for the United States. While relations between Romania and Russia have been complicated, a potential change in political leadership could open a new chapter in those relations, the expert surmised. However, no U-turn in Bucharest’s attitude toward Moscow is expected, as Romania will have to follow bloc discipline as a member of the EU and NATO.
Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor of international relations at the Russian State University for the Humanities, agrees. According to him, Georgescu surged ahead in the election because Romania, being one of the poorest EU countries, has gotten carried away with following the steps of Brussels, neglecting to address inflation, corruption, and other domestic issues. Romania does not have a very positive attitude toward Russia, but Ukraine does not enjoy much sympathy there either, he said. This is because the country has accommodated some 500,000 Ukrainians, which has strained the population's resources, while Romanians are reluctant to sacrifice their own financial well-being to support Ukraine, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Russia may appoint Darchiyev as new ambassador to the US
The Russian Foreign Ministry’s North America Department Director, Alexander Darchiyev, 64, is expected to become Russia’s new ambassador to the United States, Vedomosti reported on October 7. On November 25, the senior Russian diplomat attended a relevant meeting of the State Duma’s International Affairs Committee. The Federation Council, the upper chamber of Russia’s parliament, is also set to hold a similar meeting.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment to reporters on Monday regarding the potential appointment of Darchiyev before a corresponding presidential decree is signed. A day earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that, while Moscow had already selected a new envoy, it could not comment on the candidate because of legislative restrictions. Additionally, Russia could formally request a diplomatic procedure to appoint its new ambassador under the next administration of Republican Donald Trump.
The decision to appoint a new Russian ambassador to the United States is routine and may be linked to the change in administration in Washington rather than any fundamental shift in the strategy for dialogue, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, suggested. "New ambassadors are traditionally appointed when US presidents change, so the replacement of the current ambassador with a new one is not particularly surprising," the expert noted.
Vasilyev offered two reasons why Moscow would need an ambassador in Washington, even against the backdrop of the current low level of Russian-US relations: the appointment would preserve a specific channel of communication between the two countries and help Russia gauge the situation on the ground. "A new administration is coming, and, despite the experience of working with [President-elect Donald] Trump previously, an analysis of potential prospects for relations is still necessary," Vasilyev explained. Selecting career diplomat Darchiyev for the new ambassadorial role may signal that Moscow is prepared to adhere to international law in its relations with Washington and continue dialogue at traditional venues, he added.
Kommersant: Ruble price of Urals oil blend rises sharply
On Monday, the ruble-denominated price of Russia’s Urals oil blend surpassed 7,200 rubles ($69) per barrel. Over the past week, the oil price in rubles increased by more than 8% amid the ruble's weakening and recovering global oil prices.
On November 25, the over-the-counter dollar exchange rate rose by 4.4 rubles to 104.14 per $1, reaching the highest level since March 2022. Traders have been betting against the ruble for several weeks due to the low supply of foreign currency from exporters and the seasonal rise in FX demand from importers. The fresh sanctions imposed last week on Russian lenders and financial institutions added volatility to the currency market. "Because of the sanctions, Russian exporters and importers will face difficulties, and new supply chains will have to be established," Mikhail Vasilyev, lead analyst at Sovcombank, told Kommersant.
Global oil prices also supported the ruble price of Russian oil. According to Investing.com, the North Sea-sourced Brent blend reached as high as $74.82 per barrel on the spot market in the first half of Monday, rising 0.3% from Friday’s close and exceeding the local low by 5.6% set early last week. Over the week, Urals increased by 6.4% to trade near $70 per barrel, according to Profinance.ru.
The price correction came as news emerged that Donald Trump’s team is preparing a package of measures to expand oil production, particularly to expedite the issuance of drilling permits, experts say. Stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, doubts that lower oil prices would inspire US producers to drill more, though, as she expects Brent to hover between $75 and $76 per barrel by the year-end.
"Assuming that the ruble price of oil in November will be 10% higher than budget values, this will bring additional revenues of 100-130 billion rubles ($961 mln - $1.2 bln) later this month. Any price increase in December will affect budget revenues in January and February," Vladimir Yevstifeyev, chief analyst at Zenit Bank, pointed out.
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