Ukraine could be behind rising militant activities in Syria; the next US administration is unlikely to accept Russia’s terms to end the Ukraine conflict; and anti-government protests in Georgia are becoming more radical. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Media: Ukrainian trace visible behind rising militant activities in Syria

Officers from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) might be involved in escalating tensions in Syria. Media outlets close to Iran have reported that Turkish and Ukrainian officers were allegedly killed in a Syrian government forces’ attack on the headquarters of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group (designated as a terrorist organization and outlawed in Russia), Nezavisimaya Gazeta observes.

A number of experts note that the methods employed by HTS and the Syrian National Army in Idlib and Aleppo are strikingly similar to the tactics used by the Ukrainian armed forces on the Russia-Ukraine front. Notably, Ukrainian media reported in the summer of 2024 that GUR special forces had allegedly carried out a strike on the Kuwairis air base in Syria. In early October, Russia reported that 250 GUR military officers were stationed in the Idlib province, allegedly assigned to train HTS militants to fight against Russian and Syrian armies using drones. According to Syria’s Al Watan news outlet, Kiev not only provides assistance to Bashar Assad’s enemies but is also willing to use them in its conflict with Russia.

"By supporting pro-Turkish forces in Syria, the West aims to weaken Russia on the Ukrainian front, and Kiev seems to be actively participating in this effort," Colonel (Ret.) Vladimir Popov, a military expert, stated. "However, nothing is likely to drastically change the situation in terms of Moscow’s support for the government in Damascus, or developments in the zone of Russia’s special military operation," he added. The expert highlighted that on December 1, 2024, President Vladimir Putin’s decree came into effect, which raises the Russian army’s size to 1.5 million servicemen. "The document authorizes an increase in troops deployed not only to the special military operation zone on the borders with NATO countries, but—I believe—also in Syria, enabling a response to Ukraine’s hostile actions against Russia in the Middle East," the expert explained.

Meanwhile, Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies, told Vedomosti that Russia’s extensive involvement in the current conflict in Syria would only be possible if Moscow perceived a genuine threat to the existing political system in Damascus. As for Iran, the analyst believes that Tehran is unlikely to provide significant support to Assad because its ally Hezbollah has suffered substantial losses in clashes with Israel and is now recovering in Lebanon.

Izvestia: Next US administration plans to end Ukraine conflict

US President-elect Donald Trump has nominated retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as his administration’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Western media outlets highlight, based on Trump’s choice of administration officials, that he has opted for a tough negotiating strategy, Izvestia reports.

According to Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, "putting an immediate end to the military dimension of the conflict is a core goal of the plan." "It's not only about fulfilling [Trump’s] election promise to be a president of peace, not war, but also an attempt to shift the responsibility from Washington to Kiev. Implementing this provision will clearly require forcing the Ukrainian authorities to engage in talks, which would take place on far worse terms than those that the Biden administration previously advocated not so long ago," the analyst observed.

"Trump and Kellogg are pushing for the launch of talks in order to detach the Ukraine issue from their foreign policy. While for the Biden administration, it was a priority project with the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, now we can see a policy shift towards the East. Trump is determined to ensure Ukraine is entirely excluded from the international agenda," the expert remarked.

Still, there is no reason to believe that the US withdrawal from the Ukraine project would mean accepting Russia’s conditions related to European security architecture, where Ukraine would remain an element. In this regard, putting pressure on Kiev to force it into negotiations does not mean making peace with Moscow. "Kellogg is a typical Republican establishment member. He’s not going to be given an exclusive blank check. His nomination, as well as that of Rubio (candidate for US secretary of state) and Waltz (Trump’s proposed national security adviser), suggests that Russia’s terms for resolving the conflict won’t be accepted. We will hear tougher rhetoric, and there will be very challenging talks that will hardly lead to a mutually acceptable solution," the expert predicts.

Media: Anti-government protests in Georgia became more radical

Anti-government demonstrations in Georgia have intensified. Opposition activists tried to set the parliament building on fire, causing damage. Protests spread across the country’s capital after the government decided to postpone the EU integration issue until 2028. President Salome Zourabichvili stated that she refused to step down after her term expired later in December. Still, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the riots won’t lead to a coup.

Protests will gradually fade, Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, predicted. "The opposition wants another election to be held so it can win. However, no reasonable government will agree to this with demonstrators threatening to disrupt the city center," the expert noted.

Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out that protests were mostly happening in the capital, while the situation remained relatively calm in other Georgian cities. The expert believes that tensions could ease by the New Year.

The protests aren’t a sign of the Georgian government’s imminent collapse at this point, as the ruling Georgian Dream party is not facing catastrophic problems, Mukhanov told Vedomosti. The demonstrations are taking place in certain spots, supported mostly by young people and driven by militant-minded activists. Opposition forces are currently desperately trying to come up with an irritant to get more people to take to the streets.

The Georgian opposition is divided and lacks a leader capable of uniting it against the Georgian Dream party. In addition, many protesters simply go home to sleep after taking part in street activities, so the situation will only stabilize in the coming days, Mukhanov asserted. He is confident that President Zourabichvili has no chance of becoming the leader of the protests. She has neither a team, nor high approval ratings, nor support among the country’s people, the expert noted.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Donald Trump urges BRICS to honor currency-related obligations

Success is not guaranteed for US President-elect Donald Trump’s attempts to coerce other countries by threatening to increase customs tariffs and compel them to abandon plans to create an alternative to the US dollar. It’s hard to imagine that the BRICS member states, which produce almost half of global GDP, will rush to Trump, vowing to ban payments in national currencies, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.

China has been softly responding to Trump’s outbursts, saying that there are no winners in trade wars. The Western media also point out that Beijing has begun to study ways to counter Western sanctions by emulating Russia’s example.

Trump vowed to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations in the wake of an October BRICS summit, where Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the group wasn’t fighting against the dollar but was forced to search for alternatives. In the summer, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced a BRICS Bridge platform for foreign trade settlements in national currencies.

Experts are cautious about assessing the impact that Trump’s statements could have on BRICS nations. According to Vadim Kovrigin, deputy director of the Institute of Economics, Management and Law at the Moscow City University, the high level of populism in Trump’s rhetoric needs to be taken into account. "Still, if the issue arises on the US policy agenda, BRICS will continue to work on the idea of a common payment tool. While a single currency looks unlikely, a single payment system based on standard units may well be developed," he maintained.

No matter how much certain regions seek to reduce their dependence on the dollar, the US currency remains strong at the global level, Tsifra Broker leasing analyst Natalia Pyryeva emphasized. In her view, US politicians cannot affect foreign trade relations between BRICS countries, but the group’s members are also unable to entirely drop the dollar. However, many developing countries continue reducing the dollar’s share in their international settlements, Neomarkets chief analyst Oleg Kalmanovich pointed out.

Kommersant: Russia boosts hydrocarbon exports to Asia via Northern Sea Route

The delivery of the last gas shipments from the Yamal LNG project to the Chinese ports of Jiangsu and Zhoushan marks the effective end of the 2024 navigation season along the Northern Sea Route. This year, Russian hydrocarbon exports via the eastern part of the route increased by 14.5% to 4.47 mln metric tons, Kommersant reports.

In 2024, the Yamal LNG project’s facilities did not undergo maintenance, which usually takes place in the summer during the peak navigation period via the Northern Sea Route, independent expert Alexander Sobko noted. According to him, in the summer, large amounts of liquefied natural gas are exported to the West as well, so decisions on export directions depend on the difference in prices in Europe and Asia. As for oil, supplies via the Northern Sea Route grew even more in the current navigation period. According to data from the Gekon consultation center, oil exports to China rose by 33% year-on-year, reaching 2 million tons.

Gekon chief Mikhail Grigoryev points out that Russian oil companies reduced exports from Baltic ports in the current season, dramatically increasing supplies from Murmansk directly to China, taking advantage of a shorter logistics route.

The Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom’s envoy for the Arctic, Vadim Panov, previously said that a rise in cargo transit had been made possible through an increase in supplies by the Novatek oil company and the redirection of cargoes shipped from St. Petersburg and Murmansk from the Suez Canal towards the Northern Sea Route.

A Rosatom spokesperson told the newspaper that although it’s too early to summarize the year, it’s already possible to say that freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route had risen by more than 5% compared to the same period last year. The corporation notes that a record has been set in terms of transit traffic, which reached 3.08 mln tons. "These figures definitely highlight demand for the Northern Sea Route," the spokesperson said.

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