When things are not going well inside the country, leaders tend to publicly focus on foreign policy. This rule was yet again confirmed by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who appeared before his country’s extraordinary parliamentary session on November 29 with a keynote speech.

This has been Ishiba’s second speech of the kind in less than two months. In early October, right after taking office, he highlighted the problem of restoring confidence in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), which has been mired in the largest scandal related to fraud with political funds. His hasty decision to dissolve parliament and hold an early election was also meant to overcome the crisis. Alas, contrary to the prime minister's expectations, the LDP suffered a painful defeat, losing the majority of seats in the country's highest legislative body along with its junior coalition partner, the Komeito Party.

So, addressing the new composition of deputies, Ishiba acted as leader of a parliamentary minority government. The last time Japan witnessed this kind of power configuration was 30 years ago, which in itself indicates the current Prime Minister’s weaker political positions, as he is forced to enter into situational agreements with opposition parties. This is what determins the tone and content of his current program.

He may see it as a win-win to engage the opposition in cooperation primarily on security issues. "Under a broad consensus with the opposition parties, we will <...> work to ensure peace and security for the people of Japan," he said to begin his current speech with. A rather unusual structure for this genre. Usually, reports to that effect begin with domestic political and economic issues in Japan.

Then, the Prime Minister pointed out that major security challenges come from Russia with its military operation in Ukraine; China that violates the country's maritime and air borders; these two states’ joint military activity off the Japanese coast; and the DPRK with its regular missile launches.

In this context, Ishiba naturally mentioned the security treaty with Washington as the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy and security policy. However, this decades-polished formulation foreshadowed a truly unexpected turn: "The United States also benefits strategically from the presence of its military facilities and territories in Japan. Of course, the United States has its national interests, and so has our country." That's the way the cookie crumbles.

Ishiba certainly touched upon the "national interests" in the context of Trump’s election as new POTUS. Tokyo remembers perfectly well that the new-old president walks the talk when reiterating his "America first" slogan. However, the Prime Minister did implicitly admit that Washington spits on Japanese interests now and then. And not only under Trump.

With regard to security, this applies to American bases in Okinawa, among other things. Despite the "strategic benefits" US enjoys hereby, the Japanese PM said he would "work to reduce the load on bases, including in Okinawa Prefecture. <…> Moreover, we will promote the joint use by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces of US military facilities and territories in Japan, and work to solve various problems related to the presence of American troops in Japan."

The Prime Minister thus made it clear that reconsidering the agreement on the status of US military stationed in Japan, which he unexpectedly raised during his election campaign in September, is still part of his political agenda. The revision of this (by all appearances) colonial treaty also affects the key provisions of the Japanese-American security treaty. Such a discreet hint at undermining the "cornerstone".

Of course, the topic has many supporters in Japan as its people are annoyed by the restless neighborhood with US military facilities, criminal incidents involving American servicemen, and fundamental imbalance in allied relations that diminishes national pride. It is suitable for dialogue with voters and the opposition, but predicting real progress on the status of bases in the near future would be naive. To Tokyo, seeking restoration of sovereignty in relations with the United States is a decades-long task.

Also, Ishiba reduced the troubled relations with China to respect for national interests. Describing his recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping as meaningful, the Japanese Prime Minister called for solving all the issues through negotiations, and for cooperation in various fields. "This is realistic diplomacy based on national interests," the Japanese leader stressed. And the interest is simple: on the eve of major economic and political complications between China and the United States as threatened by Trump, Tokyo, which may also take a blow over the new administration’s increased import duties, seems to be preserving the opportunity to maintain profitable economic ties with China.

Commendable rationality. Japan once tried to pursue a kind of independent course towards both Iran and Russia, but up to a certain limit. In general, its diplomacy has always been embedded in American foreign policy.

The Prime Minister did not mention Iran this time as Japan prefers to be friends with Persian Gulf monarchies in the Middle East. And with regard to Russia, Ishiba only repeated the age-old mantra: "While the circumstance surrounding Japan-Russia bilateral relations are now quite harsh, Japan will adhere to its policy of resolving the territorial issue and concluding a peace treaty." That is, taking back the southern Kurile Islands. Specific negotiations are clearly unexpected in the foreseeable future, but keeping silent is exposing yourself to inevitable accusations of defeatism and lack of political will. And their name is legion when it comes to Ishiba’s critics. Not only among the opposition, mind you.

Meanwhile, the PM did address his country’s key challenges, though in the second part of the speech only. "Thirty years ago, Japan's GDP was 18 percent of the world's, but then it dropped to four percent. And international competitiveness, which was in the first place, has now dropped to thirty-eighth," Ishiba said. But the steps he proposed for the economy are rather tactical in nature.

By concentrating on foreign policy and security, Ishiba seems to be forming a trademark political style. His other favorite topic was the revival of regions as an important factor in economic recovery. Will this be enough to effectively manage the state and economy without a parliamentary majority, that is, in overcoming the inevitable opposition resistance? Although the Prime Minister’s own political survival is at stake, he must be lacking any other means.