US President-elect Donald Trump threatens the annexation of Greenland and Panama, while Russia observes growing militarization in Japan. Meanwhile, Ukraine may be preparing a significant counteroffensive in neighboring Russian regions. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines in Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Vedomosti: Why Trump seeks to annex Greenland, Panama
US President-elect Donald Trump has refused to refrain from using military and economic tools to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal. "We need them for strategic security... The Panama Canal is crucial to our country. It's being operated by China. And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama. We didn't give it to China," the next president said, without elaborating on exactly how Beijing has interfered in the canal's operations. He added that the United States needs Greenland for national security.
Trump’s latest remarks about Greenland have not gone unnoticed. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told France Inter that the European Union would not allow "other countries" to violate sovereign territory," even as Greenland is not part of the EU, while being under Danish jurisdiction. Another senior French official, Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade Sophie Primas, dismissed Trump’s statements as a manifestation of imperialism. In his first presidential term in 2017-2021, Trump also expressed interest in acquiring Greenland.
As regards Ukraine, Trump refused to comment on his negotiating strategy but specified that the ambition of incumbent US leader Joe Biden’s administration to negotiate Ukraine’s accession to NATO might have been among the key reasons behind the conflict. When a reporter asked Trump if he could have a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the next three to six months, Trump said: "I hope to have six months. No, I would think, I hope long before six months."
For Trump, discussing the potential annexation of Greenland means searching for ways to remain in history, while such a move would be hardly feasible in practice, Grigory Yarygin, an associate professor with the Department for American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, told Vedomosti. The expert explained this by Denmark’s unwillingness to discuss the issue and the lack of specifics regarding the status in which Trump would like to annex the island, either as a territory or as a state. The latter option would be almost impossible, he argued.
Trump is gradually making it clear to the Americans that there may not be any quick progress on either the Ukraine or the Middle East track, as he is seeking to lower tensions and present these conflicts not as potential drivers of a third world war but rather as simmering ones, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, explained. According to him, Trump chose the Western Hemisphere as his first foreign policy target instead of Europe or the Middle East. "Prior to resolving the Ukraine conflict or the Middle East crisis, he wants to tidy things up in the US’s 'backyard,'" Vasilyev said. Restoring full US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, in Trump’s opinion, would not only help bolster the US negotiating positions in Ukraine or Gaza talks but also in the country’s long-standing rivalry with China, the expert emphasized.
Izvestia: Russia notes increasing militarization in Japan
Japan has been accelerating its militarization while seeking to explore the use of US nuclear weapons, the Russian embassy in Tokyo told Izvestia. The country’s politicians are currently considering taking part in joint exercises with the United States involving nuclear weapons, similar to NATO’s nuclear missions. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, for one, has suggested establishing a regional version of the North Atlantic Alliance, deploying US weapons in Asia, and even "possessing those jointly," as he also insisted on revisiting Japan’s three non-nuclear principles. Moreover, Washington and Tokyo recently formulated the basic principles of expanded deterrence. Japan and the US intensifying cooperation would pose a threat to the security of Russia’s Far East region.
The personality of Ishiba, 67, stands out amid the clearly strengthened military cooperation between Japan and the United States. The premier is a veteran Japanese politician. He advocates for strengthening the military alliance with the United States and has repeatedly spoken out in favor of building the so-called Asian NATO. The politician justified the need for a new alliance citing threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.
"The strengthening of Japanese-US cooperation on our Far Eastern borders represents a certain challenge for Russia, even as it is too early to discuss a direct threat being posed to Russia," Dmitry Streltsov, head of the Department for Asian Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told Izvestia.
That said, Ishiba’s nuclear rhetoric has provoked not only international but also domestic criticism, including among national security experts and government officials. "The idea of an `Asian NATO’ was very negatively perceived in Japan, as was the idea of jointly using nuclear weapons or any erosion of those non-nuclear principles in general. <…> Ishiba does not have any political resources for endorsing such a sensitive issue," Vladimir Nelidov, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, explained to Izvestia.
In this context, deviating from the non-nuclear principles is hardly being actively discussed in Japan. Therefore, any U-turn in the country’s national policy on this issue should not be expected, the expert maintained. On the other hand, Japan debated nuclear policy back under Shinzo Abe, Nelidov recalled.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Allies anticipate major Ukrainian counteroffensive
Ukrainian forces have been making unsuccessful attempts to go on an offensive in Russia’s Kursk Region, attacking facilities in various parts of central Russia using missiles and drones. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, in the early hours of January 8, air defenses intercepted and downed 32 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles. Experts say Ukrainian troops harbor hopes of launching an active offensive in Russia via Crimea or the Kherson Region, as well as an incursion into the bordering regions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.
Meanwhile, Russian forces maintain the strategic initiative almost along the entire line of engagement. Over the past week, Russia has taken control of more than 10 localities, while Western and Ukrainian experts have calculated that Ukraine loses up to 20 square kilometers of land daily. However, many observers and experts warn that Kiev is preparing a new counteroffensive in Russia. Ukrainian troops have been attempting to advance in the Kursk Region since January 5. Military correspondents reported that Ukraine continues to deploy assault teams from its elite units to border areas near Sudzha, with more than 600 troops recently added to the Ukrainian battlegroup there.
Analysts who track military cargo traffic in Europe reported "at least 193 flights" to the Polish airport of Rzeszow in support of Kyiv between November 30 and December 31. Of that number, at least 94 flights carried American commercial trucks, and at least 12 were military flights. Additionally, the United States has delivered "roughly 1,000 various military vehicles, including trucks, armored combat vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles as well as tanks or armored personnel carriers" to the seaports of Gdansk and Gdynia.
"Some 1,000 tanks and armored combat vehicles would be enough to equip at least five to seven Ukrainian mechanized brigades, and it would be possible to form at least two army corps using those, given the availability of additional troops and weaponry," military analyst and retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, Ukraine has been replenishing its air force not only with US fourth-generation fighter jets but also with trained pilots. The British embassy in Ukraine reported that 200 Ukrainian pilots had undergone basic training outside London ahead of piloting F-16s. Western media also reported that Ukraine will receive the first batch of up to six French Mirage 2000-5 fighters before the end of this month. Ukrainian pilots were trained to fly those in France.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his NATO counterparts will discuss "ongoing delivery of key capabilities including air defense systems, artillery munitions, and armored vehicles, as well as efforts to bolster the defense industrial base" at another meeting of the US-led group coordinating weapons supplies to Ukraine in Germany’s Ramstein later on Thursday.
Vedomosti: Indonesia joins BRICS as full member, surprising many
On January 6, Indonesia became the 10th full-fledged member of BRICS, following Brazil's assumption of the presidency of the grouping from Russia. The announcement caught many off guard, especially considering that just five days earlier, on January 1, Jakarta and eight other nations had been granted partner country status, a necessary step for full membership, which was approved at the Kazan Summit in 2024. However, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry clarified that the BRICS leaders had approved Indonesia’s candidacy at the South African Summit in 2023.
The Indonesian Foreign Ministry stated that this move "reflects the growing importance" of the country in global affairs and its dedication to "strengthening multilateral cooperation" in the pursuit of a "more inclusive and just world order."
Indonesia becomes BRICS's first South Asian member and is the group’s largest in both population (over 280 million people) and economic size, having seen a 5% growth in the past two years. The country is the world's largest exporter of palm oil and a leading nickel supplier. It also ranks fifth globally in LNG supplies and exports thermal coal and various agricultural products.
Currently, annual trade between Russia and Indonesia totals approximately $4 billion, while Indonesia’s key economic partners include China, the United States, and Japan. Before his inauguration, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited China and Japan for his first post-election trips. Additionally, in August 2024, he visited Europe and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The decision to admit Indonesia likely stems from multiple factors, as Yekaterina Koldunova, Director of the ASEAN Center at MGIMO University, explained to Vedomosti. Subianto clearly has personal ambitions to elevate Indonesia’s international profile, particularly in its relations with the Global South.
Furthermore, Koldunova pointed out, there are expectations that BRICS membership will provide Indonesia with tangible benefits, such as access to new financial platforms and institutions, enhanced ties with other BRICS nations, and stronger negotiating positions in talks with the West. Under Subianto, Jakarta is also expected to maintain constructive relations with the United States, without direct opposition, according to the expert.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How halting Russian gas transit by Kiev may affect Europe
On Thursday, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will make another attempt to convince officials in Brussels that the cessation of Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine could lead to severe consequences, with Europe facing a shortfall of approximately 15 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
Fico was supposed to meet with European officials earlier, but the meeting was postponed due to what he described as Ukraine’s sabotage, which he stated "harms the interests of the entire EU." Hungary shares this concern, as Budapest believes Ukraine’s leverage in the gas sector could drive prices higher and "create new challenges for European competitiveness."
Kiev persists in its assertive stance, accusing Slovakia of trying to undermine Western unity and threatening a strong response to Fico’s warnings, which include the possibility of halting electricity supplies to Ukraine and suspending support for Ukrainian refugees in retaliation for the halted gas exports. Amid this, gas prices at European exchanges surged above $500 per 1,000 cubic meters.
According to Konstantin Simonov, Director of the National Energy Security Fund, Russian gas volumes could be partially redirected to Europe through Turkey, though Turkey’s infrastructure has limitations. Despite the ongoing competition for the European gas market, Gazprom should not rely on this option, the expert contends. Furthermore, as soon as Donald Trump, who advocates for American LNG, returns to the presidency, this dispute will escalate, Simonov believes. In the meantime, Gazprom should focus on prioritizing domestic gas supplies.
Regarding Ukraine, it stands to lose around $800 million annually if it halts gas transit. However, Kiev is promoting the idea of constructing a gas hub in collaboration with Poland. Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained that this would involve Poland’s long-standing plan to create a storage and distribution facility in Eastern Europe, primarily for American LNG.
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