Europe may bear the burden of military aid to the Kiev regime, the Israel-Hamas deal is accelerating ahead of Trump’s inauguration, and Putin instructs the establishment of a headquarters to manage the fuel oil spill in the Black Sea. These stories topped the headlines in Friday’s newspapers across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
Izvestia: New US administration may unload military supplies to Kiev on Europe
Following the January 9 Ramstein-format meeting, the outgoing US administration announced its final package of military aid to the Kiev regime. The US delegation was led by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, while President Joe Biden once again did not attend. After Donald Trump’s inauguration, the volume of US support for Ukraine could decrease, and Ramstein-format meetings may potentially cease altogether, experts suggest. It is likely that Washington will shift some of the burden of aiding Kiev onto its European allies.
"It is clear that, as president, Joe Biden is losing influence. The media is no longer focusing on him as much as on Trump, whose presidency is now only days away. For Biden himself, fulfilling his duties is becoming increasingly challenging, particularly given his age. Attending the Ramstein meeting was not a priority for him," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Center for Security Studies, told Izvestia.
According to the expert, Ramstein-format meetings primarily serve to demonstrate transatlantic solidarity regarding Ukraine. Secondly, they aim to signal that the incoming administration will likely continue supporting Kiev.
American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin believes that the Ramstein format has lost relevance, and its meetings no longer carry much significance.
"The only meaningful topic of discussion is the extent to which Europeans can bear the financial burden. Donald Trump has been very clear that he intends to reduce current financing levels and prioritize diplomatic engagement with Russia. It’s worth noting that Europe is facing severe financial constraints — neither France, nor England, nor Germany have significant resources to spare. Additionally, elections across Europe consistently show that the public is opposed to prolonging the conflict and escalating tensions with Russia," Brovkin told the newspaper.
"It is even more significant that Trump has previously stated that there is no future for Ukraine in NATO. This is arguably a historic declaration that opens the door to meaningful discussions on Ukraine’s future," the expert highlighted.
He also believes that the world is undergoing a major geopolitical shift, with NATO’s long-term future now in question.
Blokhin, however, is less optimistic and argues that it would be a mistake to assume that Washington will completely abandon its support for Ukraine.
"This is not necessarily an indicator of a complete policy reversal regarding Ukraine. Both the US and Europe’s strategies are crucial. While Trump’s focus will shift toward China, Europe is likely to maintain its support for Ukraine. This suggests that the financial burden of aiding Kiev and countering Russia will fall more heavily on Europe. As a result, the scale of support will shrink, and passing aid packages through Congress will no longer be as straightforward as it was under Biden," the analyst stated.
In his view, Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. The West has little interest in this outcome, as it would entail significantly increased military spending on Ukraine and the risk of direct conflict with Russia, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Israel-Hamas deal gains momentum ahead of Trump presidency
Israel has been engaging in ongoing negotiations through intermediaries, aiming to finalize a prisoner exchange deal in the near future, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office informed Izvestia. The arrangement involves swapping kidnapped Israeli citizens for Palestinian detainees. However, Hamas has yet to provide a detailed list of the hostages it is willing to exchange. Furthermore, the recent discovery of one hostage’s death may further complicate the discussions. Experts, however, are confident that the radical group’s weakened position will lead to concessions, while Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the White House is likely to expedite the process.
Hamas has experienced significant setbacks recently, with several of its prominent leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, eliminated.
"All these developments have seemingly led Hamas to moderate its demands, which were previously much more rigid. They are no longer demanding the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. It’s also possible that they won’t insist on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip as part of this partial military setback," said Middle East expert Alexander Kargin.
The likelihood of an agreement between Israel and Hamas appears to be increasing, especially with Trump’s return to the presidency. Kargin speculates that the deal might even be announced on Trump’s inauguration day.
According to Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, the rapidly evolving regional political landscape is contributing to the deal’s potential acceleration. He believes that the noticeable weakening of Hezbollah, which supports Hamas, and the tentative truce with Israel have also created favorable conditions for finalizing the agreement.
Media: Putin orders crisis center for Black Sea oil spill response
Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government to establish a commission or crisis headquarters by January 9 to manage the aftermath of the fuel oil spill in the Black Sea caused by the capsizing of two tankers. This body would operate immediately on-site.
Putin noted that only working groups at regional and federal levels have been formed so far, and the ongoing efforts to minimize the damage are "clearly inadequate." The Russian leader described the spill as "one of the most severe ecological challenges we’ve faced over the past year."
The creation of a crisis center to address the environmental disaster in the Black Sea is crucial, particularly for delegating senior officials from relevant agencies to the region, as local authorities may not have the capacity to resolve all issues, Georgy Arapov, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for Ecology, told Vedomosti. He highlighted the necessity of involving federal officials to handle the removal of fine fractions of fuel oil, which cannot be managed manually.
Numerous volunteers have arrived in the area to assist with cleaning affected birds. Thanks to their efforts, approximately 3,000 species have been transferred to rehabilitation centers. However, the two existing facilities are nearing capacity. Roman Pukalov, director of environmental programs at the Green Patrol all-Russian NGO, told Izvestia that a new rehabilitation center near Anapa is urgently required, as many birds cannot survive long-distance transportation.
Vedomosti: Armenia sets own conditions for peace with Azerbaijan
Armenia has proposed dismantling the long-defunct OSCE Minsk Group, which since 1992 has unsuccessfully tried to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, and proposes establishing a mechanism for mutual arms control as a prerequisite for concluding a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, the Armenian government approved a symbolic resolution declaring its intention to join the European Union. These proposals were announced by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on January 9, two days after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in an interview with local TV channels, called for the dissolution of this mediating platform as one of the preliminary conditions for signing a peace treaty with Armenia.
The main reason for Azerbaijan’s dissatisfaction with the Minsk Group is the perceived bias of its co-chairs, the US and France, toward Armenia, said Stanislav Pritchin of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS). According to the expert, Pashinyan’s peace initiatives are primarily an attempt to "disrupt" the established trajectory of the peace process and dilute the tough demands and conditions imposed by Azerbaijan. "When the Armenian authorities propose mutual arms control mechanisms, it is crucial to consider the presence of EU observers in Armenia, whose activities Baku has demanded be halted. This mission has not been legitimized and, from Azerbaijan's perspective, represents Yerevan’s interests," the expert added.
The OSCE Minsk Group effectively ceased operations in 2022 after representatives from the US and France suspended dialogue with Russia within the framework of the mediating platform, Hrant Mikaelian of the Caucasus Institute noted. The group can only be dissolved through a joint request by Baku and Yerevan and must be approved by all co-chairs, he explained. The expert believes that Azerbaijan is not genuinely prepared for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, despite Pashinyan’s agreement to all of Baku’s demands. In his view, Azerbaijan is unilaterally pursuing concessions from Armenia to increase pressure on Yerevan while avoiding any commitments to a peaceful settlement.
Vedomosti: What will gas prices for Europe be in 2025
The average gas price in the EU in early January 2025 remains at $500 per 1,000 cubic meters, which is 1.5 times higher than at the start of last January, according to the ICE Exchange. Since the beginning of the year, prices have ranged between $480 and $540 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Vedomosti surveyed analysts about the outlook for gas prices in Europe throughout 2025. A number of factors influence the price dynamics, including winter weather, the amount of gas withdrawn from underground storage, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and the suspension of Russian fuel transit through Ukraine starting on January 1, 2025, experts noted.
Given these factors, the analysts polled expect gas prices in the EU to rise in 2025.
According to Ivan Timonin of Implementa, the annual average gas price will amount to $500-520 per 1,000 cubic meters. Analyst Sergey Kaufman from Finam believes the average price will be at $420 per 1,000 cubic meters, with prices fluctuating between $300 and $550 per 1,000 cubic meters during the year.
Higher gas prices, coupled with the weakened ruble and planned increases in supplies to China, will help Gazprom offset the lost transit profits from Ukraine, experts concluded.
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