Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov outlines terms for Russia's willingness to discuss security guarantees in the Ukraine conflict; Hamas and Israel have settled the contentious issues of the Gaza ceasefire agreement; and NATO is aiming to prepare Kiev for negotiations with Moscow "from a position of strength." These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Threats to Russia at its western borders must be eliminated, as this is "one of the main causes" of the Ukrainian conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on January 14 at a press conference on the results of the year 2024. He carefully avoided going into details of the possible settlement process, but at one point said that Moscow was ready to discuss security guarantees for "the country now called Ukraine, which, unlike Crimea, Donbass, and Novorossiya, is not yet self-determined." However, Lavrov stressed that the Russian authorities could agree to this if the process was integrated into the "Eurasian context," Vedomosti writes.
Kiev’s membership in NATO remains an unacceptable scenario for Russia, and Moscow also demands the restoration of the linguistic and religious rights of Russians, which have been systematically destroyed in Ukraine, Lavrov reiterated.
Lavrov also said he believes the world is now waiting for a meeting between US President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The minister added Vietnam to Serbia, Hungary, and Switzerland, which were previously mentioned in the press, as possible locations where such a dialogue could be organized.
In his speech, Lavrov signaled a return to President Putin’s proposal for security guarantees made in late 2022, Head of the CIS Institute’s Ukraine Department Ivan Skorikov told Vedomosti. That proposal included not only the issue of Ukraine’s neutrality but also the problem of the deployment of US military bases in Northern and Eastern European countries. The expert recalled that the initiative focused on the fact that the NATO alliance should not only stop its offensive development but also dismantle the existing bases along the perimeter of Russia’s borders.
The efforts of Trump and his team to achieve peace should not be overestimated, an expert from the Financial University under the Russian Government, Denis Denisov, told the newspaper. The peace initiative of the US President-elect is still in its early stages. In theory, there are various formats and configurations of simultaneous security guarantees for Ukraine and the elimination of threats to Russia from the West. One of them, which could hypothetically suit everyone, is the preservation of Ukraine as a sovereign independent state that refuses to join NATO. Then Russia will be able to ensure the security of its southwestern borders, the expert added. But Kiev could agree to such a scenario only under "total pressure" from the US and the European Union.
Izvestia: Hamas and Israel finalize Gaza deal
Hamas and Israel have resolved key issues of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, a source in the Palestinian movement told Izvestia. According to the source, Hamas showed notable flexibility in reaching the agreement. The three-phase deal outlines a ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and the return of Palestinian prisoners. Egypt is preparing to reopen the Rafah checkpoint to receive Israeli prisoners.
"Hamas demonstrated significant flexibility to secure an agreement during talks in Doha," a source from the Palestinian movement told Izvestia. All contentious and remaining issues were resolved at these negotiations in Qatar, the source added.
The peace process in Doha was facilitated by Egyptian and Qatari mediation, with coordination from both the current and incoming US administrations, officials cited by the media indicated.
"We are no longer discussing mere optimism but the imminent initiation of the ceasefire process. The deal has been approved and will unfold in three phases. Israeli army commanders have informed hospitals to prepare for the imminent return of hostages. Israel is already taking steps to implement the deal," Palestinian security expert Mohammed Al-Masri told Izvestia.
In the first phase, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages, including children, women, female soldiers, the elderly, and the sick. On the 16th day after the deal begins, Israel will commence talks for the second phase, focusing on releasing male prisoners of military age, soldiers, and the bodies of deceased hostages.
However, Israel will retain significant assets for leverage during the second phase to ensure all hostages are returned. This includes detaining senior Hamas figures in Israeli prisons and maintaining a temporary military presence in Gaza. During the first two phases, Israel will hold the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza's border with Egypt.
According to the ceasefire agreement reported by Israeli media, the IDF will withdraw from most of the Gaza Strip. A large number of Palestinian prisoners will be released. However, as per The Times of Israel, individuals involved in the October 7 Hamas attack will not be freed.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev prepared for negotiations with Moscow 'from position of strength'
On January 14, Russian territory experienced its largest drone and missile attack of the year by Ukrainian forces. Simultaneously, the Russian military continues to maintain the strategic initiative on the front, with the Russian Defense Ministry reporting the capture of Neskuchnoye and Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that alliance countries remain committed to providing military assistance to Kiev so it can engage in peace talks with Moscow "from a position of strength," Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
Meanwhile, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made an unannounced visit to Kiev, where media reports suggest he discussed additional military support with Ukrainian officials. Berlin plans to deliver air defense systems, drones, tanks, armored vehicles, ammunition, and shells to Kiev in early 2025 under a new aid package.
Kiev is set to receive primarily offensive equipment, including 22 Leopard I tanks, 25 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 16 howitzers, 3,500 Helsing attack UAVs, six armed Sea King helicopters, and 250,000 rounds of artillery.
The package reportedly also includes AIM-9L/I-1 Sidewinder air-to-air guided missiles, compatible with fourth-generation American F-16 fighters supplied to Ukraine. These missiles have an 80% success rate in hitting aerial targets. "On August 4, 1988, one of these missiles brought down a Su-25 attack aircraft piloted by Alexander Rutskoy, deputy commander of Soviet aviation in Afghanistan. They are extremely dangerous," retired colonel and military expert Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The expert noted that there is no indication Ukraine intends to cease hostilities. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reiterated support for Kiev, highlighting NATO's 40 bln euro financial aid package and stating that Ukraine should eventually join the alliance.
Izvestia: Russia, Vietnam aim to strengthen cooperation
Russia and Vietnam have signed a declaration for a comprehensive cooperation plan until 2030 following talks between Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in Hanoi. The agreement includes a target to increase trade turnover to $15 bln. The Russian delegation, led by Mishustin, included several deputy prime ministers, ministers, and business leaders. One of the key agreements is a memorandum with Rosatom Energy Projects, which could enhance collaboration in nuclear power plant construction, Izvestia reports.
"We have always maintained strong relations with Vietnam, which follows a multi-vector foreign policy approach. Vietnam has balanced foreign economic and political ties. There are no sanctions against the country, with the US lifting the last of them in 2016. While Hanoi enjoys good relations with Washington, it also maintains close ties with Moscow," Kirill Kotkov, Head of the St. Petersburg-based Center for Far Eastern Studies, told Izvestia.
Vietnam is a critical partner for Russia as part of its "pivot to the East" policy and efforts to diversify foreign economic ties, Izvestia notes. The country is seen as a gateway to the dynamic Southeast Asian region through BRICS. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Vietnam is expected to become an association partner, even though it is not yet officially listed.
Russia seeks to deepen collaboration with Vietnam in areas such as energy, digital economy, cybersecurity, military-technical cooperation, education, and culture, as reflected in the agreements signed after the talks. A significant project involves Rosatom constructing the first nuclear power plant in Southeast Asia in Vietnam’s Ninh Thuan province, which could serve as a major driver of economic cooperation.
"Vietnam’s rapid development has led to a significant demand for electricity, prompting increased coal imports and reliance on ‘dirty’ coal-fired power plants, which complicates its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The idea of using ‘peaceful’ nuclear power for electricity generation has resurfaced on Vietnam’s agenda. Russia, with extensive experience in building nuclear power plants of various capacities, could be a valuable partner for Vietnam in this area," research fellow at the Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences Elena Nikulina told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: What does US-Armenia strategic partnership agreement mean for Russia
On January 14, during Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to the US, Washington and Yerevan signed a strategic partnership agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The agreement outlines bilateral cooperation in political, security, defense, economic, energy, scientific, educational, cultural, and humanitarian sectors. It also includes US assistance to Armenia for military and economic reforms but excludes direct US intervention in potential conflicts. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti suggest that Armenia's growing ties with the US could fundamentally alter its relations with Russia.
Armenia is steadily pursuing closer ties with the West while reducing its relationship with Russia, said Stanislav Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, to Vedomosti. However, Yerevan aims to retain economic advantages from its association with Moscow. "The Pashinyan government is gradually scaling back its cooperation with Russia, focusing on the economic aspect alone. If relations continue to deteriorate, Armenia’s opportunities in this area may also decline," the expert noted.
The Armenian leadership believes Russia relies on Armenia more than vice versa, prompting Yerevan to seek military-political collaboration with the West while preserving economic ties within the EAEU, according to political scientist and South Caucasus expert Artur Atayev. Currently, Armenia imports up to 70% of its consumer goods from Russia via the Georgian military highway. Atayev warns that deepening Armenia-US cooperation will likely result in a drastic shift in Moscow-Yerevan relations.
Atayev further stated that Russia is unlikely to impose sanctions on Armenia but will likely reevaluate its military-technical relations. "In practice, Moscow has already been reducing military cooperation with Yerevan due to Armenia’s acquisition of military equipment from France, another NATO member," the expert concluded.
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