The situation is so serious that yesterday the Presidents of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia made an unprecedented statement that they have operational information about the plans of the Georgian leadership to start military operations in Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia in early November.
They said that “if the aggressive plans of Georgia are implemented, they will respond to them adequately” and called on Tbilisi “to abandon the aggressive plans developed by the Georgian General Staff”.
According to Bagapsh and Kokoiti, “today, the Georgian ruling establishment makes efforts to solve its internal problems at the expense of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia “. In this connection, they advised to the Georgian leaders “to solve their internal problems not at the expense of their neighbors but through a dialogue with its own people” and once again reminded that “the Georgian-Ossetian conflict may be resolved only through negotiations and in no other way”.
The words of Kokoiti and Bagapsh sound like a clear reminder. It is well-known that the opposition plans to hold a rally of its supporters in Tbilisi on November 2. According to the opposition leaders, at least 100,000 people are expected to take part in the action.
Mikhail Saakashvili who himself came to power on the wave of so-called “Revolution of Roses” in 2004, knows it quite well what the mass protest actions can lead to. Naturally, he doesn’t want to repeat the fate of Shevarnadze, Gamsahurdia or Abashidze. In this situation, Saakashvili does not have any other option but to take the lead.
As a matter of fact, he has a poor choice. There are two ways to defeat the opposition’s action – to disperse the dissatisfied people and imprison their leaders or to impose the martial rule in the country… by declaring the war!
After the arrest and torment of Okruashvili, it would be evidently excessive for “the democratic Georgia” to do the same with his fellows who never rested on plank-beds before. A be sure that it is not due to the feeling of guilt or moral responsibility to own nation (Saakashvili never suffered such complexes) – the West may not understand these steps. Meanwhile every word or opinion of the West is too valuable for the current Georgia rulers. Therefore “the saakashists” hardly resort to any radical measures against the opposition in the current situation.
Thus, there is only one but reliable way to avoid troubles associated with the planned protest actions – to unleash a war irrespective how barbarous such assumption would sound for a civilized man.
Naturally, Kokoiti and Bagapsh did not disclose the nature of their “operational information” that gave them grounds to assume that the special operation against the unrecognized republics is scheduled for early November. But according to the local media leak, immediately after “neutralization of Okruashvili” and subsequent trial actions of the opposition, Saakashvili held a meeting with his minions that made a decision to defeat the opposition by the war. Allegedly, this meeting took place on September 29, the day after the arrest of Okruashvili.
Note that at night on September 29, Saakashvili returned to Georgia from the UN General Assembly where he execrated Russia, Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, and immediately left for the Kodori Area to open a motor road to so-called Upper Abkhazia. Naturally all top country leaders got together there. It was quite suitable event to discuss the problems relating to the opposition, Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. .
Here, it’s high time to remind that inter alia Okruashvili accused Saakashvili of the fact that the President quailed and failed to take a chance to unleash a was in Southern Ossetia in 2006 when the Georgian General Staff developed a plan of aggression. So, taking into account the situation in Georgia in those days and emotional background against which Saakashvili had to live and work, it is quite possible to assume that such meeting and its mad decisions could really take place that time.
However, in spite of the madness there is a kind of logic yet the inverted one in such approach. Six weeks ago, before the statement of Okruashvili, I published an article named “Is it true that Georgia is unexpectedly reducing its troops in Iraq to prepare for Caucasus war?” that contained an analysis of an unexpected decision of the Georgian Ministry of Defense to radically reduce its contingent in Iraq.
The article ends with the following thesis:
"The next year in Georgia is a year of elections. According to the latest news from Georgia, the fight for parliament seats and president chair is expected to be severe. And nobody ever abolished such election technology as “a small victorious war”. To all appearance, Tbilisi finally made a decision to select this way that is harmful for the nation. It is confirmed both by the unreal huge Georgian military budget and by the statements on the increase of the Armed Forces from 20,000 up to 90,000 and by mass purchases of obsolete and new weapons worldwide… There in one thing that is beyond understanding of “the saakashists” – Georgia will have not “a small victorious war” but “a Big Caucasus War”.
Until now, everything comes true unfortunately. I would not like to be a prophet but it seems that the events really trend towards the war. And it is not important already when it will start - in early or in late November. The course is set, and Saakashvilli hardly would change it.
The lunge of Okruashvli and unexpected for “the saakashists” solidarity of the thousands of people opposing the current regime in Georgia have reminded to Saakashvili and his fattened minions that they do have something to loose – moreover they actually can loose it! And in such case the lives of thousands are just peanuts that can be easily exchanged for the bellyful, sweetness and light near the trough.
