The letter itself and participation in the NATO Membership Action Plan in general yet do not mean that Ukraine will become a full-right member of the Alliance in the near future. However, there is no smoke without fire. Moreover, the information about this letter became public just during the visit of Richard Lugar, a cochairman of the US Senate Commission for International Affairs, to Kiev. His visit to one or another region of the world usually means strengthening of the US position there. In this case, Lugar promised US support of a positive decision on Ukraine’s membership at the April Summit.
Action Plan
The NATO Membership Action Plan is a NATO programme for consulting, assistance and practical support of aspirants for the Alliance based on the individual needs of the aspirant. Participation in this programme is not a prerequisite of a positive NATO decision on the membership in the Alliance but is actually the first step towards the ajar door. That is, a transition from an intensive dialogue to actual actions.
The aspirant countries annually submit their individual national membership preparation programmes. They reflect political, economical, defense and legal aspects. Then the Alliance uses a candid feedback mechanism to assess aspirant-countries’ progress on their programmes that includes both political and technical advice as well as annual 19+1 meetings at a Council level to assess the progress.
In other words, if Ukraine is included in this Action Plan, it will start absolutely real and detailed preparation for its membership in NATO. It’s all over but the fulfillment of all conditions required for the Alliance membership. Surely, it will take many years to upgrade the defense and develop the economy. But, in principle, with proper understanding and support of the overseas patrons this process could be accelerated. For instance, it happens now in present-day aspirant-countries: Croatia, Albania and Macedonia.
Why now?
As 2008 and new political season started, the developments in Ukraine accelerated. After the early parliamentary election, the pro-presidential block of parties formed a government that supports membership of Ukraine in NATO. This country and Alliance could agree joining the NATO Membership Action Plan as far back as the last year. But that time negotiations were frozen – Ex-Prime Minister Yanukovich beat a hasty retreat. He claimed that Kiev is not ready for rapprochement. Now it’s time to exploit the strategic union of all power branches and raise an issue on increase of a level of cooperation with North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Participation in the NATO Membership Action Plan has been highlighted by the current Government as a priority of its foreign policy. Purporting that it should provide for systematization of this policy on the one hand, and reorganization of the Ukrainian-Russian relations on the principles of mutual trust and respect on the other hand . In fact, it is evident that neither the Ukrainian society nor the economy is ready for such transmigration. All this formal demonstration of rapprochement with the West and integration into the European Union by and large is reduced only to an attempt to outline a certain progress in the relations.
The action with the request-letter addressed to the NATO Secretary General is most likely invented to avoid possible misunderstanding on the eve of the Bucharest Summit and exclude Alliance mistrust towards the current state authority in Ukraine. Kiev once again tries to convince the European and American partners, that the demarche similar to the Yanukovich’s roll-back two years ago, is not possible today. The NATO home nursing is required to Ukraine to avoid skidding of domestic political processes. They hope that rapprochement with the North Atlantic Alliance would create seeming of international recognition and respect of old new power that would provide it with a margin of legitimacy and trust of the population. Though as a whole any expectations that transition of the NATO-Ukraine relations to the higher level would result in closer integration of Kiev into the European community, are just another illusion.
Reaction
The opposition has already raised its strong protest against the current developments. Party of Regions plans to force Rada Speaker Yatzenyuk to recall his signature under the letter addressed to Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. The motivation is simple - the head of the Parliament is only one of 450 nationally elected deputies temporarily elected to chair the House. Therefore, without a decision of the House he had no right to sign a document on behalf of the legislative assembly. Otherwise, the supporters of Yanukovich are ready to put to vote the conformity of the Speaker to the occupied position.
Russian Ambassador in Kiev Victor Chernomyrdin claimed that Moscow will revise its relations with Ukraine if the latter becomes a NATO member. It is wise to remember about the sentiments of the population. A decision on the NATO membership should be made by a national referendum and approved by Supreme Rada. According to public surveys, 60 per cent of the Ukrainians object to membership in NATO. The loose majority of the Orange Coalition in the Parliament also does not guarantee unanimous voting on this matter. It is enough to recollect, how "fast” was Rada to take a decision on Timoshenko to become the Prime Minister. Even if in April the country joins the NATO Membership Action Plan, the actual process of the Ukraine’s registration in Brussels may take years and even decades.
