This statement discords with the promising steps taken by the new Polish Government to improve relations with Russia. For example, the parties finally have settled a painful problem of Polish meat product import to Russia, Warsaw claimed that it is going to lift its veto on the Russian – EU talks about new cooperation agreement, and promised to refrain from obstructions to Russia membership in the WTO.
However all these positive developments were crossed out by the news from Washington. Many analysts agree that Poland once again decided to demonstrate its “hard” pro-American position and repudiate the agreements reached with Moscow.
It’s true that Sikorsky confirmed Polish concerns over relatively peaceful coexistence with Russia if the American ABM systems are deployed in Poland: “Nowadays Warsaw does not perceive Russia as a hostile country but after deployment of the ABM systems everything may change. They should be considered as objects of risk. And we speak not only about political risks.”
These words were negatively received in Moscow that repeatedly warned on an adequate response to ABM system deployment in Poland and Czech Republic. So far Russia plans to reinforce its military contingents in the Kaliningrad Region and retarget its medium-range missiles to the objects in these countries.
In such situation Poland has to play a charmless and complicated role of “a servant of two lords”. On the one hand, the USA made it its target to reach an agreement with Poland on ABM system deployment by all means before Bush leaves the White House. Such agreement would reinforce loose positions of the White House domestically and would smooth harshly negative attitude of the majority of Americans to the Iraqi and Afghan adventures and aggravated threat of terrorist attacks.
On the other hand, Moscow also insists on the respect of its interests. These interests might be ignored if Poland were situated at “a positive distance” from its larger eastern neighbor. But besides the vicinity, Warsaw is completely dependent on the Russian gas and import of its agricultural products to this country. Poland cannot deny any component of its national economy – all projects of alternative gas supplies to Europe remain unimplemented due to lack of material resources, and Polish products failing to meet certain EU standards cannot be sold anywhere but in Russia and CIS countries.
Besides, this time Washington didn’t stint the promises wishing to reach a result acceptable for America only. Surely, the promises failed to relate to the problems urgent for the Polish people. For instance, the White House didn’t promise to soften a visa regime for Poland and didn’t guarantee additional financial contributions to the economy. .
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said at the meeting with Sikorsky that in response to the positive attitude to the ABM shield Washington will support the plans of Poland to upgrade its defense, in particular, its air-defense systems. In this context the parties discussed possible supplies of American AD systems Patriot or anti-missile systems THAAD to Poland. .
In spite of the fact that the parties already reached an oral agreement relating to the ABM shield prospects in the Polish territory, Sikorsky emphasized that officials of both countries will continue consultations to finalize the details. According to him, the talks on details may become “a marathon” because it is very difficult to agree upon many technical aspects in a short period of time.
According to experts, a decision on Patriot supplies to Poland by the USA will be made only after the visit of Polish Premier Donald Tusk to Washington and his meeting with George Bush. This visit is scheduled for early March.
Besides, Poland has to have consultations with Russia. The Polish Premier will visit Russia on February 8 to continue the consultations started in January. That time Polish Foreign Minister was in Moscow to have negotiations with his Russian colleague on the ABM systems. Sergey Lavrov claimed that the Polish party should take into account the concerns of Russia.
At the same time in the opinion of analysts there are also other obstacles on the way to establishment of US ABM bases in Poland. Firstly, Russia is not going to easily change its stand in spite of Polish readiness to improve relations with Moscow and take into account its opinion.
Secondly, the complicated talks between Czech republic and USA on the ABM radar are still in progress, carefully watched by Warsaw. So far the American and Czech diplomats didn’t reach an agreement on such key problems as exterritoriality, location of the US troops in Czechia and payment of compensation in case of radar failure. Czech Premier Miroslav Topolanek claimed that the Czech party does not set a deadline for the talks with the USA and tries to reach an agreement with the US party with maximum benefits for itself.
Most probably, the Polish Government also will delay its final decision until Poland and Czechia coordinate their positions and receive firm guarantees from Washington.
In any case, Sikorsky confirmed the necessity to sign a framework agreement on the ABM systems. Evidently, it will stipulate US obligations and possible prospects of their fulfillment. This matter becomes very urgent on the eve of the presidential election in the USA this November, and possible change of the WH stand. .
Thirdly, it is necessary to take into account an opinion of the Polish people on the ABM shield. According to a recent public opinion poll, 57 per cent of Poles are against deployment of the American ABM systems in their territory.
Besides, the talks between Poland and USA become more and more annoying to Europe that does not exclude that Warsaw with its aspirations to dominate in Eastern Europe simultaneously remaining “ an bell-boy of Washington” may become in future a main source of tension and instability in the European continent.
In such situation Warsaw most probably will strive to minimize all risks and bargain for illusive guarantees of its security not being aware of the fact that it is once again set up. Only now already by overseas patrons.
