Before the ink dried in the Washington’s written “revolutionary initiatives” for provision of the Russia’s security interests during the construction of the US ABM third deployment area in Europe, just in a few days after the American message was received in Moscow, top-ranking officials of the US Administration forgot their own head-notes aimed at provision of a “constructive” Russian-American ABM dialogue.
Firstly, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State D. Kramer claimed at the hearings in the US Congress: “…The USA at its own discretion will take decisions on activation of the ABM systems in Europe based on its own vision of missile threats, and declarations that Washington and Moscow will assess such threats together before activation the ABM bases in Europe are incorrect”. It means that the promised approach to activation of the ABM systems in Europe has been revised conceptually – all decisions will be taken only by Washington. Russia has no “right of veto” on activation of the ABM systems.
Secondly, the idea of a permanent “presence of Russian officers in the ABM facilities” has been also revised. US Under Secretary of Defense E. Edelman re-interpreted the thesis on Russian officers in the radar base after his consultations in Prague only as “…usual inspections, for example, as inspections under the CFE Treaty”. In so doing, these “inspections” depend on the Poland and Czech authorities, which already claimed that they will not tolerate any Russian permanent presence in their territory because it will infringe their sovereignty.
A reasonable question arises: “Do all these statements conform to the Russia’s security interests?” The answer is evident: No, it do not. This is a stand of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is a stand of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who said that an opinion that the US ABM base in Europe is aimed at somewhere but Russia, is “naïve”. And Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for Foreign Affairs, said that “there is no doubt that the so-called US ABM third deployment area is aimed not at Iran but at the control over the Russian nuclear missile potential”. The Russian politicians are based on competent opinions of military experts.
Today, Europe starts understanding that the deployment of the US ABM systems in Czechia and Poland ignoring the opinion of Russia triggers generation of an absolutely new strategic situation in the continent. The actual plans of Pentagon exceed the actions taken even during the Cold War. It is the first time in the history when the systems of the US strategic potential are deployed outside the national US territory in the vicinity of the Russian borders.
Therefore, the answer about a true designation of the US ABM systems in Europe is clear, any further discussions on this subject are senseless. The disguise of the US ABM systems in Europe is thrown off . And the situation is changing dynamically every day not in favor of Russia.
According to Pentagon officials, the talks with Poland and Czrchia are “in progress”. The Defense Expenditure Act of 2008 provided 225 million Dollars for the construction of the ABM systems in Czechia and Poland. But disbursement of these funds will start only after the Governments of Czechia and Poland give their final consent with deployment of the ABM systems in their territories.
It seems that such consent is not a problem. Prime Minister of Czechia M. Topolanek is going to submit a respective draft agreement with the USA to the Parliament even before the April NATO Summit in Bucharest. No doubt, that the Czech Parliament will approve this draft. Being in Washington Polish Foreign Minister R. Sikorsky confirmed that his country is ready to welcome not only US ABM systems but also other NATO facilities in its territory. “We would welcome future presence of the American troops in our territory”, Sikorsky said according to The New-York Times. During his visit to Moscow R. Sikorsky noted that all decisions relating to the ABM shield will be taken on a bilateral basis by the Polish and American parties. “The USA is the most important ally of us. As for Russia, we recognize that it has its own stand. But we will not let anybody impose his opinion on us”, the Minister said. In this context, a commentary of “Gazeta Viborchey” is also noteworthy that “pro-Russian delusions” in assessments on the actual Polish government should be abandoned.
In a word, as of today all proposals of Russia to the United States to abandon deployment of ABM systems in Europe have been ignored, while the agreements between the USA and Poland and Czechia are on the home straight, thereupon they will be implemented in practice.
What steps may be taken by Russia in this situation to stop this mad US project?
If all dialogues and convictions fail, and they have failed, our side should apparently offer more convincing arguments that would demonstrate our capability to restore the strategic balance in Europe and vulnerability of analogous ABM systems similar to those planned to be deployed in Czechia and Poland and aimed at Russia (to show by what means and how they may be destroyed).
The steps “to offer more convincing arguments” to our “slow-witted” opponents may include provision our Kaliningrad Military Force with theater ballistic missile systems “Iskander”. Somebody may say that it will be a demonstration of notorious “aggressive ambitions” of Russia so much talked about in the West. No at all. It will be just an adequate response – one “Iskander” in Kaliningrad per one GBI in Poland. Why not? If they can do why can’t we? And we should do it now before the plans of the USA are implemented when it is still possible to stop this mad project.
In this case, the statements of Russian officials “on effective and adequate response of Russia” to the efforts to neutralize our deterrence capability would be apparently more convincing, and actions of our neighbors – more prudent.
It seems that in the present situation it is a real chance to stop the mad US project infringing the Russia’s national security interests.
