The most “ringing” political analysts are “Euro-Christians”. As soon as a conflict concerns one of them, it is immediately interpreted as “we are peaceful people” while “they are yaffers”. The less famous collisions are conflicts in the world margin even if this margin is planted with the coca. Meanwhile, a market of this product ranks the third in volume worldwide after the power and weapon ones. Moreover, it is a rather politically sensitive market...

So. On March 1, the Columbian troops attacked a local rebel camp located across the border in Ecuador. They killed one of the leaders of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (RAFC) Raul Rayes and about 20 rebels. The RAFC was founded in 1964, and as of today totals 18,000 men. Formally they fight for the socialism in their own country. But having favorable neighbors in the east (Venezuela) and west (Ecuador), many “Bolivarians” (opponents of the USA in the local meaning) are enticed with an idea to cut off the mainland along the line from the Atlantic to Pacific. Moreover, the conflict between the rebels and “anti-Bolivarians” (read: fighters with drug trafficking) is escalating. In the destroyed camp the troops allegedly found computer evidence of the Columbian Balivarians’ ties with the Ecuadorian Bolivarians and via them with the Venezuelan ones.

After formal resignation of Fidel Castro from the post of the Cuban leader, Venezuelan Hugo Chavez became a candidate for the chief revolutionary of Latin America. But the December (2007) referendum in his own country hampers his establishment in this position. That time he failed legally extend and expand the presidential powers. Meanwhile, already in February 2008 Chaves confirmed his revolutionary passionarity when he expelled American ExxonMobil from Columbia for overrun of the well operation costs. Successful settlement of the Ecuadorian-Columbian conflict will strengthen the positions of the Fedel’s Latin American successor. Moreover, President of Ecuador Rafael Correa believes that he is also the Balivarian. Whereas Columbian leader Al’varo Uribe is just the contrary. Thus, the prospects of the military operation depend on interference of the Columbian friend, the USA. In other words, is Washington able to get involved in the next “Iraq” just before the presidential election? However, in any case it is not good to attack a foreign country. Columbia is not the USA, and Correa is not Saddam. Probably, Hugo Chavez also thinks like this.

The other face of the coin is the aforesaid coca. Officially all Bolivarians are against drug trafficking, but they are for cultivation of the coca as the most competitive plant regardless of the specific feature of its demand. By the way it is the USA that made South America its main garden as far back as the XIX century (“United Fruit” – coffee, bananas, citrus fruits and other colonial goods), and determined the vector of its economic development. All other resources were found later. It was just recently when Venezuela became the fifth nation worldwide in terms of crude reserves. But everyday experience confirms that the coca grows faster, densely and everywhere. Today it became a main “asymmetric” response of the Bolivarians. And we have to recognize that this response is rather effective, for the Americans are frightened with cocaine traffic from South America not less that we – with heroin traffic from Afghanistan.

And the key point is that South America even without transborder wars is considered a region of "revolutions per minute", i.e. the place where revolutions are made at a rate of a crankshaft. Accessibility of the Kalashnikov sometimes ex contrario sobered accomplices of the rifle-bode weapon. Its use beyond the boundaries of the native selva is prevented also by exotic experience of former conflicts. It remains only to recollect a war between Salvador and Honduras in 1970 emerged from a football match! Or a conflict between Peru and Ecuador in 1995 due to “incorrect” maps published by “interested” parties. Our case is larger than the “football case” and more serious than the “map error case”.

As soon as Hugo Chavez, who was in the TV air that moment, knew about the attack on the RAFC Ecuadorian camp, he gave an order to his defense minister: “”Send ten battalions with tanks to the Columbian border! If you, the President of Columbia, will try to do the same in Venezuela you did in Ecuador, I will send against you several “Sukhoys”! On March 3, Ecuador broke diplomatic relations with Columbia. On March 4, Venezuela did the same. The Venezuelan tanks are heading to the motherland of Bolivar. Will they reach Columbia, and will 24 aircraft Su-30MK2V recently purchased by Chavez take off? It’s a question. But Kalashnikovs, including those 100,000 from the same shipment, are already on the stage.