At negotiations with Washington on deployment of ABM systems in Eastern Europe Donald Tusk succeeded in bargaining a large material and political compensation for his country. Undoubtedly, this news will become one of the main news of the current week, but now – a short digression.

There are many opinions about the origin of Poker. One thing is known authentically that the first written reference to Poker is dated 1834 and made by Jonathan Green. He described this card game that was very popular that time on the Mississippi river, by three words: “The Cheating Game”. Usually it is a game for four players. Very often the winner is not a person who makes the best hand but who wins against other players psychologically. In this case, bluff and cheating are effective.

Now let’s return to the point. In our case there four players in a large Poker game: Russia, USA, Czechia and Poland. It is clear that they bet strategic problems: international security and world stability. In this case the US ABM systems are in the pot.

The play is in high gear. One player has already thrown his cards. Yet, just recently he thought that he made a good move. In principle there is no need to translate this metaphor for those who attentively watch the game on the world arena. But we’ll explain it for others to make the presented picture more solid. When the USA aired its plans to deploy its “third ABM position area” in Eastern Europe, the Czech press trumpeted about future preferences and benefits of participation in this project. In exchange for installation of a US ABM radar Prague succeeded in receiving a free-travel regime for its citizens, and claimed that the US ABM system deployment in its territory is agreed upon.

Approximately at the same time the Polish Foreign Minister claimed that Warsaw supports the Washington’s plans, but later received a public reprimand for it from Donald Tusk. That time the Primer actually advised the Foreign Minister to keep dark, and many experts thought that unlike the Kachinsky’s government the present government is more loyal to Russia. Tusk even twice visited Moscow to give a hint that in certain conditions Warsaw may deny the Washington’s “candy”. And although there was no breakthrough, it seemed that Poland is ready to listen for Russian “pros” and “contras”.

But Tusk opened his cards only now. He flied to Washington and had a meeting with President Bush in the White House. In exchange for his support of the ABM project he demanded from the USA to upgrade the Polish armed forces at the expense of American tax payers. What was the Bush’s answer? “The needs of Poland will be examined, and before my presidential term expires we will prepare a detailed and feasible plan of the upgrade”. The last sentence is especially important to Warsaw. It’s not a fact that the Bush’s successor will continue with the programme.

After the American trip, Donald Tusk claimed that the parties agreed upon the following: “Firstly, Americans claimed that they will take up the political burden. Secondly, Washington promised to provide assistance in upgrade of the Polish Army. Thirdly, we established the principles of mutuality and solidarity of our activities in the security sphere”. In other words the USA not only will pay for new weapons for the Polish Army but also will assume responsibility for settlement of all future political disputes with Russia, European Union and Polish neighbors, which are not delighted by the way with the plans to deploy American missiles next door. Warsaw intends to play game “it’s nothing to do with me”, and shift the future blame on Washington.

Anyhow, in exchange for the Warsaw’s consent to receive the ABM base the USA has to pay good money for upgrade of the Polish Army. According to preliminary estimates of Polish experts it totals 20 billion Dollars. Meanwhile the problem of payment for the US base itself is still pending. The Tusk’s Government does not agree with the free lease suggested by the USA.

But we should not forget about another key player in the bet. We will know about the Joker in the Russia’s sleeve less than in a week. The Moscow 2+2 US-Russian meeting is scheduled for March 17. Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates will try once again to explain the need to deploy the US ABM systems in Europe, and convince Sergui Lavrov and Anatoly Serdukov that this decision is safe for the Russian side. President Bush assured of it Premier Tusk in Washington. Surely the Polish Premier instantly believed. Bluff and cheating are very effective in this case.