However, both domestic and foreign observers are not in a hurry to congratulate the Baghdad Authorities with the success. Actually the as-Sadr group demonstrated its power and capability to capture the cities and thus won an important moral and political victory and saved its main forces for future combat operations to be launched when and where as-Sadr will believe it necessary. On the contrary the Government troops mainly consisting of Shiites demonstrated inadequate vigor in the fighting against the coreligionists and inability to break down resistance of the combatants even with the support of American troops.
Western mass media quotes from as-Sadr: “We urge to cease fighting and leave Basra and other provinces with arms taking into account a religious responsibility and for the purpose to stop the bloodshed between the Iraqis, preserve the unity of Iraq and terminate the outbreak that is disseminated by the occupants and their puppets in the Iraqi nation”.
By Iraqi standards, casualties during the street fight between as-Sadr forces and Government troops are not high, about 240 killed and several hundred wounded people “only”. However, it was the first large-scale test of Maliki’s Government and its US-trained army for independent fulfillment of law-enforcement tasks in the country.
It seems that the test failed. In spite of praiseful assessments of the US President and official optimism in Baghdad the Iraqi government troops failed the mission. As a result, the American troops (British troops even do not make an effort to leave their reinforced base in Basra long ago) had to urgently interfere and hit the Mahdi Army’s combatants with precision weapons, and the Maliki’s Government - to offer concessions to as-Sadr, offer money to him and delay the deadline of its own weapon surrender ultimatum.
The latest developments enable us to look at a different angle also at “the success” of the new American strategy in Iraq implemented since mid last year. The air-lift of additional US troops to Iraq and their concentration in the most dangerous sectors in combination with the support of Sunnites acting together with the American troops against Al-Qaeda combatants resulted in general improvement of situation in the most hazardous provinces of the country and reduction of attacks on the American troops.
However, US assistance to Sunnites caused painful reaction of the Shiah concerned with strengthening of political positions and influence of the Sunni. It resulted in increase of communal violence mostly enhanced by radical Shiites united around Mullah Moqtada as-Sadr. It is known that as-Sadr’s partisans entered in the Shiah block that supported al-Maliki at the election in 2005. However, later their paths diverged. The leader of the Mahdi Army claimed that the Premier is “an American puppet”, and urged Iraqis to all-national disobedience and armed resistance to the foreign occupants.
The US force command in Iraq already long ago is concerned over the activities of as-Sadr, and certain American militaries called the Mullah in public “the most dangerous man in Iraq”. But in due time the as-Sadr combatants played an important role in the fight against the armed Sunni anti-American resistance especially in Baghdad. The Shiites including women, old men and children butchered or expelled by them from the entire quarters and areas of the city were written off to “consequential loss”.
Therefore the US troops in general did not press on them hard yet periodically had combat clashes with the Sard combatants. Moreover the foxy Mullah every time agreed with the authorities and American militaries on armistice in complicated situations through his influential supporters in the Government and security agencies. Therefore the Sard-led Mahdi Army in fact became a state inside the state and currently controls vast areas including in Baghdad (“Sadr-city”) and oil-rich southern Iraq. In the opinion of local observers, the Sadr combatants bear heavy responsibility for murders, kidnapping and other acts of communal and religious violence, and are regarded as the most destructive factor in the political life of Iraq.
At the same time, the actual pre-dominantly Shiah Government in Baghdad in spite of the US pressure has neither desire nor real capabilities to get rid of the ambitious Mullah. Moreover, the Shiah is split and exposed to discords on the eve of the important municipal election. The American forces in Iraq very often found themselves between several fires and just don’t know what to do trying to preserve at least the status quo. Furthermore the political establishment in the USA does not care very much of Iraq due to the big presidential race, and Washington just has no time to elaborate another strategy to stabilize situation in the country.
Certain experts reasonably indicate that it is Iran that has influence on Sard and could restrain the rebellious Mullah and his Mahdi Army for Iraqi settlement. But in the context of actual relations between Washington and Tehran it is hardly expectable.
In light of the aforesaid, conclusions are evident. Iraq is still far from long-awaited independence and is balancing on the edge of the civil war or even collapse. It seems that the USA and its allies still have no other option but to keep large military forces in Iraq that anyway are capable of holding down the lid of Iraqi kettle with a boiling mixture of all components and factors pushing the country into the civil war and chaos.
