According to Peacekeeper.ru as quoted to an informed source in the Georgian Defense Ministry, in mid-April this year President M. Saakashvili held a secret meeting with security ministers to familiarize them with a plan of a military operation against unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, code-named “The Double Shot”. Actually it was long ago when the Georgian leaders demonstrated such stupid blindness last time. As a matter of fact, all previous plans of military aggression elaborated by Tbilisi were directed either against South Ossetia or against Abkhazia. For example, a notorious plan - “Tiger Jump” . But simultaneous attack against two unrecognized republics became a novelty. It seems that M. Saakashvili actually is armed to the teeth, and 100 per cent sure to get good support from overseas.

At the same meeting the Defense and Interior Ministers of Georgia got instructions what troops should be deployed along the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In so doing, all activities should be performed strictly concealed.

However, tanks and large units are not needles to hide. It became known that the strength of Georgian troops in the Zugdidi District near Abkhazia is already 3,500 men. More than 1,500 militaries and special force troops of the Interior Ministry are deployed in the Kodori Valley. Currently militaries are arriving to these areas in small teams sometimes in civil dress for concealment. Certain militaries are transported by rail.

According to our data, a Georgian task force that is built up on the Abkhaz direction may include: two infantry brigades (2nd and 3rd ), artillery brigade, two brigades of the National Guards, two light infantry battalions, marine battalion and two special force battalions. A total strength of the force may be about 18,000 men, 120 tanks, more than 200 guns and MLRS, 2 assault lending ships, 15 combat and patrol boats and 10 lending boats.

On the South Ossetia direction a Georgian task force may include troops stationed in the area of responsibility of the CIS Collective Peacekeeping Force, i.e. about 1300 men, units of 1st and 4th Infantry Brigades, two brigades of the National Guards and two special force brigades. A total strength of the force may be more than 14,000 men, 70 tanks, 80 guns and MLRS.

In both Abkhaz and South Ossetia directions air support and transport operations may be provided by about 15 combat aircraft Su-25, more than 20 auxiliary aircraft, more than 20 helicopter gunships and 40 assault support helicopters.

Let’s return to The Double Shot. A simultaneous attack on Abkhazia and South Ossetia (note: The Double Shot) is scheduled for late April (27-29). All large settlements in South Ossetia and partially in Abkhazia will be captured by the Georgian troops and security forces from different directions, simultaneously the border with the Russian Federation will be completely blocked. In all controlled and captured areas the Georgian authorities will impose martial law, appoint interim governments, and implement curfew restrictions.

In detail the concept of the operation is the following.

In Abkhazia: a main attack will be mounted on Sukhumi from the Zugdidi District by two infantry brigades, National Guard brigade and special force battalion, a subsidiary attack will be launched on Sukhumi from the Kodori Valley by a special force battalion, light infantry battalion and Interior Ministry units. Simultaneously, an amphibious assault landing operation will be performed in the coastal area. Besides, a mariner battalion will be landed near Gagra to promptly move to Sukhumi.

In South Ossetia: the Trans-Caucasus Highway will be blocked by a special force brigade, and tactical airborne raids will be performed in the areas of Zema-Roka, Shua-Roka, Qvemo-Roka. Simultaneously, two mechanized brigades are to defeat main South Ossetia’s troops near Tzhinvali and Dhzava. Another mechanized brigade will capture Lelingori. Smaller settlements will be captures by armed militia units formed in Georgian enclaves in South Ossetia.

Further, special forces of the Defense Ministry and Georgian police are to suppress any insurgency resistance and establish full control over northern areas of South Ossetia.

According to the Georgian Ministry of Defense the force ratio between the conflicting parties affords ground to expect a victory. (Peacekeeper.ru)