In March, Prime Minister of Czechia M. Topolanek in his interview with newspaper “Gospodarskiye Novyny” said that “the agreement on deployment of the US ABM system in Czechia is practically ready for signing”. According to him, the document may be submitted at the Bucharest NATO Summit on April 2-4 and signed within several weeks. The Premier did not exclude that it may be signed in Prague on May 5 at the ABM NATO Conference.
However, the Bucharest NATO Summit is over, and the Prague Conference is also over, but the signing is still pending. The Czech Prime Minister claimed that now the agreement may be signed only in early June. But even if it happens, nobody can be sure that the agreement will be ratified by the Czech Parliament.
The point is that the plans to deploy the US ABM radar in Czechia have split the Czech society. The ruling Civil Democratic Party advocates ratification of the agreement. But this party has no majority in the Parliament. Certain MPs of the Green Party who joined the ruling coalition do not agree with the installation of the radar. It is clear that these MPs will vote against. The leading oppositional Social Democratic Party demands to hold a referendum on this issue while the Czech Communists are categorically against the US ABM radar. More than 200 thousand Czechs signed a petition to the Government demanding to hold a national referendum on this issue. According to the recent public survey, 57 per cent of respondents would vote against the deployment of the American ABM radar in their territory.
The developments in Poland in connection with the US ABM project are rather ambiguous. The United States once again feels the specific taste of communication with the Polish leadership. According to newspaper “Dzenik”, the Americans start being annoyed with the rigid position of Warsaw that demands an assistance of 20 billion Dollars to upgrade its armed forces in exchange for the Polish consent to deploy the US GBI base in its territory. The core of this assistance is provision of the Polish Armed Forces with AAM Patriot System and training of personnel to maintain this system. Poland does not agree with the less. As quoted to Vice-Premier Shetina, “20 million Dollars, which are promised by the USA to Warsaw for the upgrade of the Polish Armed Forces, will not bring the Polish nation to its knees because it’s a very small amount”.
Besides, the Polish authorities demanded that the USA “assume the entire political burden associated with the ABM system deployment in the Polish territory”. That is, the USA should itself settle the claims of Russia, European Union and other countries relating to the deployment of the interceptors.
With a view to the hard line of the Polish side at the talks and too high price demanded by Poland for the deployment of interceptors H. Obering, Director, the Missile Defense Agency, made a statement that may mean a principally new turn in implementation of the ambitious project on deployment of US ABM systems in Eastern Europe. According to H. Obering, the USA will install the radar in Czechia even if the talks with Poland on deployment of the GBI base fail.
"As before, we hope to conclude an agreement with Poland on deployment of the GBIs in its territory. However, even without them the radar to be installed in Czechia will have great capabilities”, Obering said addressing the US Senate Armed Services Committee. In other words, the Washington authorities let them see that if Poland remains stubborn putting forward new demands to the USA, the States may do without it. As they say, there are no keymen. For example, Georgia permanently speaks about its readiness to accept the ABM systems in its territory. Without any precondition. Is there a sense to continue the bargaining with “inconvenient” Poland?
As it happened, there is. In early May, Warsaw hosted a regular round of the Polish-American talks. Prior to the talks Polish Deputy Foreign Minister V. Vaschekovsky noted that this round will be “a serious step forward” while the Defense Minister B. Klich claimed that before the G. Bush’s presidential term expires the ABM talks with the USA will be finished. According to the latest data from Poland, Warsaw is going to deeply examine the prospects and consequences of the US ABM project implementation. It is also expected that if Poland agrees with new proposals of the American party, the construction of the base for 10 GBIs may start already in 2009.
If the talks fail, the USA will look for a new location of its GBIs within the European ABM system. In particular, according to the Polish mass media, the American Administration is going to discuss this issue with Czechia: whether the Czech Republic is ready to accept not only the radar in its territory but also 10 silos with GBIs. Polish newspaper “Gazeta Vyborcha” reads: “Prague did not reject the new US proposal. But in so doing, the Czech Government claimed that because of powerful opposition in the Parliament it would be better to be limited to the radar”.
The aforesaid confirms that the US talks with Czechia and Poland on the ABM systems entered a period of uncertainty and delays. What is it? Symptoms to roll in the American ABM project in Europe or a regular diplomatic trick of the parties to mislead the public opinion?
Most probably, the second. The point is that the American “ABM shield” in Eastern Europe is strongly opposed by Russia, while France and Germany speak for the respect of the Russian stand that in opinion of French Prime Minister F. Fillon was demonstrated at the recent NATO Summit in Bucharest when six EU founders: Luxemburg, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France and Netherlands, voted against immediate invitation of Georgia and Ukraine to the NATO Membership Action Plan that was insisted by the USA. According to F. Fillon, it is not admissible that “the dialogue and necessary cooperation with Russia would happen to be in danger due to rapid expansion of NATO and hasty deployment of the ABM shield that fulfills the task of strategic missile defense only partially”.
In order to be “closer” to France and Germany in the issue of “the respectful attitude to Russia”, the United States makes a statement that the USA and Russia “have reached a tremendous progress” at the talks on the ABM problem. In particular, it was stated by Acting US Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security J. Rood. In March, he expressed an assumption that this topic will be discussed at the Bucharest NATO Summit and at the talks between the Presidents of the USA and Russia in Sochi. However, the ABM talks did not take place at the Summit while in Sochi the American party failed to put forward any new proposal, that was confirmed by S. Ryabkov, Director, the Department if European Cooperation of the RF MFA. So, no “tremendous progress” is in hand.
Speaking on the situation relating to the ABM problem, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that “the Russian concern “will not be lifted unless Russian officers are allowed to attend the ABM systems in Czechia and Poland on the permanent basis” to monitor their operation. “The key task is to provide for the presence of our officers at the facilities permanently without any breaks” S. Lavrov said.
However, Poland and Czechia are categorically against such approach. For example, Polish Vice Foreign Minister V. Vaschekovsky, a counterparty of Russia at the ABM talks, believes that the permanent presence of Russian officers at the facility could affect operation of the ABM shield and decision-making process in this defensive system. “Poland may accept the Russians for a visit or inspection but their permanent presence at the base is not admissible”, V. Vaschekovsky said.
Czech Defense Minister V. Parkanova and Foreign Minister I. Linger also claimed that their Government stands against any permanent accreditation of Russian military experts at the US ABM base in Czechia. At the same time, Vice Premier A. Vondra said that Czechia may agree with periodic inspections of the facility by the Russians. It is clear that the USA completely agrees with the stands of Poland and Czechia.
The new aspects in preparation for deployment of the strategic US ABM systems in Poland and Czechia also include new conclusions of American scientists that were aired at the ABM hearings in the US Congress. In particular, the scientists claimed that the Pentagon “exaggerates the missile threat to America in order to justify huge expenses on development of the ABM shield”. In their opinion, “the ABM shield, which construction is in progress, does not guarantee the defense of the United States against an actual ballistic missile attack because during the last five years there were only two successful tests of ground-based interceptors. In so doing, during the tests the operators used such detailed information on the targets, which will be never provided by the enemy in the real conditions”.
Besides, the scientists criticized the plans of ABM system deployment in Poland and Czechia. Especially this criticism focused on the deployment of 10 GBIs in Poland allegedly for the defensive purpose only. The American scientists emphasized that “the two-stage missiles (version of carrier “Pegasus” capable of placing the satellites on the low orbit), which are expected to be deployed in Poland may carry nuclear warheads aimed at Russia. So, it is not surprising that Russia regards the American interceptors as a potentially offensive nuclear weapon”. The conclusions of the American scientists need no further comment.
We’ll see further developments. But already today it is evident that the new aspects do not reduce severity of controversy between the parties on the ABM problem and require adequate steps of Russia.
