We may only guess how our partners the world over liked it!
But August 2008 will go down in the history also as the time of awful genocide against the Ossetian people, as the time of triumph of the Ossetian and Abkhaz people statehood, and as the time of indelible disgrace of the Georgian army.
Let me start with the last point.
This entire story about the Georgian army would have been worthy of being a script of a Zuckers’ comedy if it had been no real blood, devastation and distress, which this army brought to the land of South Ossetia.
Raised under the colors of a mentally inadequate new Caucasus “Fuhrer”, trained and armed cap-a-pie with the money of the United States, NATO countries and their flunkies, these “Georgian knights” played the new “crusaders” marching against “submen” populating their “Holy Land” therefore they even selected a respective name of their reprisal raid against South Ossetia - “Holy Field”. They advanced killing everybody and burning everything on their way, imitating even in their appearance the fascist occupants, who invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. Please, see documental pictures, and the similarity becomes apparent. The “the Crusade” failed. It was shameful. Already four days after these “knights without panther’s skin” encountered not poorly armed militiamen but real warriors, the Georgian army just ceased to be. In the proper sense of the word. “The crusaders” scampered away under the skirts of their moms abandoning their arms and combat equipment. In the Kodori Valley the Abkhazian troops just observed the effect of the Bermuda Triangle - the multi-thousand Georgian force was not in evidence yet the tea on the tables was still hot. They vanished!
A more comic situation was observed in Gori. Gori and its suburbs were a Georgian troop concentration area prior to the advance against South Ossetia. It was the area there the Georgian side concentrated its main reserves and deployed weapon depots. The streets were crowded by militaries. Suddenly rumors spread from a city market that a column of Russian tanks was advancing towards Gori. (Later it became clear that it was a horror-stricken column of Georgian tanks running away from the Russian army losing tracks and rollers on the way) This rumor was enough to drive the Georgian troops from Gori. All of them: militaries, policemen and authorities scrammed from the city towards Tbilisi by trucks, cars and donkeys. And only one old Georgian woman was standing on a sideway sadly watching this disgraceful run. A soldier shouted from a truck: “Granny! Run Away! Russians are coming!” “Why should I? We were friends for hundred years”, the wise woman answered.
The Russian troops never intended to enter the city. However, reconnaissance squads reported that huge depots with weapons and ammunitions in the city suburbs were not guarded at all and made a real threat the people. The city was abandoned by troops, policemen and all municipal authorities.
And then Viacheslav Borisov, Deputy Chief of the Peacekeeping Force Operational Staff, took his jeep UAZ and together with his driver even without personal arms went to Gori. The city lived its usual life, there were electricity and water in the houses, but there were no municipal authorities at all – everybody run away. Borosov telephoned to Tbilisi and asked to send at least somebody to govern the city. Tbilisi waited a bit but yet has sent a frightened young man, who claimed with self-confidence that he was a mayor however failed to provide for even the work of law-enforcement bodies and distribution of bread. It’s a script of a comedy movie!
Military captures... It is not even correctly to say they were captured. The Russian troops just collected huge amount of weapons and ammunitions abandoned in a panic by the running “crusaders”. Our troops picked up about 200 combat and transport vehicles, including 65 tanks, 15 infantry combat vehicles BMP-2, howitzers D-30, SAM systems Osa, American armored vehicles, Czech guns, several southland small arms including US- made and German-made machineguns, assault rifles and carbines (rifles G36 banned from export in Germany). Russian militaries found unguarded 180 wagons with ammunition on the railway near station Khashuri.
It would not be correct to say that the Georgian army was defeated as it happens in war, and retrograded inland. It has just disintegrated and vanished. Our peacekeepers today in the zone of their responsibility stop and disarm heavily armed gangs in American Hummers and trucks. These gangs immediately surrender without any armed resistance. They are the last of the “crusaders’ army”. The author may understand the feelings of American and other military advisers who trained the Georgian troops for a long time. In any case, they contributed a lot of their knowledge, energy and even soul into this process. They really hoped to make an army of this herb of corrupted shopkeepers. And such a disappointment!
Why did we start this article with the description of Saakashvili’s “Crusade” fiasco? Because unfortunately we have to state that the history has lessoned neither “the Caucasus Fuhrer” nor his overseas patrons. The Russian side has rather reliable information that preparation of the second “Crusade” is in progress. In this connection our American and NATO partners are recommended not to pay too much attention to the creams of Saakashvili eating his tie and dreaming about the revenge. Even if they manage to collect several dozens of thousands of reservists from under the skits of their moms and from remote mountain villages, and arm them anew, the venture will fail. Any professional sober-minded military will confirm that the Georgian army was not just defeated in the battlefield, it was crushed morally. Of course, it is possible to send this demoralized herd to a battlefield again, but it will just die there. In this case even without assistance of the Russian army. Today the armies of Ossetia (and Abkhazia) have enough arms and morale to make the Saakashvili’s second “Crusade” his nightmare.
However, taking into account that Saakashvili succeeded in making the USA and NATO “the hostages” of his adventurist policy, this second aggression depending upon the steps of the West may have huge if not catastrophic consequences for the whole mankind. It will depend upon those who delivers diapers for the Georgian kids by the guided-missile destroyers and those who in large Western HQs again draws blue arrows on the map of the Caucasus.
Now we came to the second in time but the first in importance event of August 2008. On August 26, 2008 the President of the Russian Federation signed a degree on recognition of the Republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as a number of accompanying papers initiating the establishment of interstate relations. For the West it is a clear signal that Russia has returned to the Caucasus, stands there firm and will not withdraw from the Caucasus in any case. Only the Big War (the author tried to avoid these words) can change anything now, and the West and USA have to understand that the Caucasus is so to say behind the “red line”, i.e. within the zone of the Russian national interests, which Russia cannot give up, and will defend to the last.
In this connection the words of Colonel-General A. Nogovitsin, Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff, about the presence of NATO warships in the Black Sea sound topically: “Now when the conflict (in South Ossetia) is over, NATO warships came here (to the Black Sea). For what purpose? What for? Of course we ask the respective questions to our partners. But frankly speaking the Russian side believes that the need and expediency of this action are rather doubtful”.
It is true that as from August 21, NATO gradually increases its naval task force in the Black Sea. This force is expected to include up to 18 ships. Today Spanish frigate Admiral Juan de Borbon, German frigate Lubeck, Polish frigate General Pulaski, two US destroyers and one US Coast Guard cutter quarter the Black Sea.
In accordance with the official statement the German, Spanish and Polish frigates and USS Taylor (FFG-50) passed thought the straits to proceed westwards to Rumania for courtesy calls and participation in a joint naval exercise, which should also involve four Turkish ships.
In turn, the second American destroyer, the USS Mc Faul (DDG-74), and USCG cutter Dallas passed through the straits and proceeded eastwards to the Georgian port of Batumi. As declared to the Turkish authorities they deliver baby-food, napkins, diapers, blankets, etc.
It is expected that in the near future another group of US warships will arrive to the Black Sea, including the USS Mount Whitney, a command and staff ship of the 6th Fleet. Probably they will deliver additional containers with diapers.
Below we offer certain characteristics of the aforesaid ships, which may be interesting for the reader:
The USS McFaul (DDG-74) is a modern guided-missile destroyer. Displacement – 8915 tons. Commissioned in 1998. She was not involved in combat activities yet.
The ship has 90 Tomahawks vertical launch system cells, torpedo tubes and 8 automatic guns of 12.7 mm, 25 mm and 20 mm in caliber. Of them two 20-mm Phalanx CIWS with a rate of fire of 3000 – 4500 rounds per minute are very efficient against anti-ship missiles, including high-g and maneuvering sea-skimmers. It is a new system designed and manufactured by the General Dynamics Corporation and Raytheon Company incorporating a 20-mm M61 Vulcan Gatling gun autocannon linked to a radar system for acquiring and tracking targets. It may be installed on a wheeled chassis. The destroyer is provided with up-to-date AN/SLQ-32(V)2 Electronic Warfare System linked to all weapon systems.
The destroyer is of a new type (DDx), which main task is to kill land targets and establish superiority in the literal waters.
The US Coast Guard cutter Dallas is an old warrior. Normally she is armed with one Otobreda 76-mm gun and one missile Phalanx CIWS defense gun. In practice she may carry 122/127-mm guns to kill land targets. The cutter performed seven combat patrols off the coast of Viet Nam, her list of accomplishments included 161 gunfire support missions involving 7,665 rounds of her 127-mm ammunition. This resulted in 58 sampans destroyed and 29 Viet-Cong supply routes, bases, camps, or rest areas damaged or destroyed. In 1980, the Dallas was the command ship for the historic Mariel Boatlift operation, during which several thousands of migrants set sail from Cuba.
And another ship of the future naval task force:
The USS Mount Whitney is a command ship. Commissioned in 1971. Displacement - 18400 tons. A flagship of the US 6th Fleet. It is cconsidered to be the most sophisticated Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) ship ever commissioned, the Mount Whitney incorporates various elements of the most advanced C4I equipment. Her electronic technology enables the Joint Intelligence Center and Joint Operations Center to provide the timely intelligence and operational support available in the Navy . She can transport supplies to support an emergency evacuation of 3,000 people. The Mount Whitney was deployed in 1994 to Haiti with Lt. Gen. Hugh Shelton, the commander of the XVIII Airborne Corps, in command of the Joint Task Force that conducted Operation Uphold Democracy. She was acting as the initial command post for Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa. During the deployment, the ship embarked elements of the 2nd Marine Division.
All whips have helicopters Sea Hawk and Sea Stallion.
So, what is behind the stage of this performance of guided-missile destroyers delivering the diapers?
Today, we may say with a rather high degree of probability that this “Great Armada” is an element of a de-facto ultimatum, which will be probably presented to Russia after an extraordinary summit of 26 EU states in Brussels scheduled for September 1, 2008 called by France as a chairman of the European Union.
The form of its decision is not important, de facto it will be an ultimatum. “Either you will withdraw from the Caucasus and get back to a pose, in which you used to stand for 15 years, or the EU, NATO and OSCE will impose the respective sanctions on you”.
This ultimatum will surely have an organizational element: membership in the G8, WTO, OECD as well as in various joint projects and programmes with the West.
It will have also an economic element: freezing of large joint business-projects, e.g. Nord Stream and South Stream. Restriction or complete prohibition of export to Russia of various goods including the food, Freezing of bank accounts of legal entities and individuals, up to and including attachment of real estate and other assets.
And of course a military element – the treat of use of force in case of disobedience. Here are the warships arriving.
Fundamentally, all this is a penny guff for Russia. Yet, of course, Russia may face certain problems and difficulties. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in his interview with Russia Today: “We are not afraid of anything, including the prospects of a new Cold War. Of course we don't want that. In such a situation everything depends on the stance of our partners in the international community and our partners in the West. If they want to maintain good relations with Russia, they will understand the reason for our decision, and the situation will remain calm. If they choose a confrontational scenario, well, we have lived in different conditions, and we can do so again”.
As for the recognition of the Republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the West has to live with it. “And if there is an attack against them we will, of course, provide them with all necessary assistance… Russia is an independent sovereign state and it has the right to decide what it has to do to promote its interests particularly in the areas along its borders. That is obvious”.
Scientific, cultural, other ties, economic relations, participation in joint projects, foreign trade - all this is a two-way street. Russia is a too large and powerful country to be “isolated” by the West without serious losses for itself. Russia has enough rather efficient instruments of a financial and economic response to the West. And there is no need to list them – the West knows them well. All depends on the political will, and the Russian leaders have it.
As for the military cooperation, today the USA and NATO countries need Russia much more than Russia needs them, for we already know their value as partners in the anti-terror coalition. President of Russia D. Medvedev explained it well at his meeting with Russian Permanent Envoy to NATO D. Rogozin: “ We worked consistently to develop our relations with NATO for quite a long time. We would like to have a full-fledged partnership. What we do not want is an illusion of partnership, when NATO surrounds us with its bases and takes in more and more countries, while telling us, “don’t worry, everything is fine”. Of course we do not like this. All the more so when faced with such restrictive acts as those that have taken place recently. We did not provoke them and did not seek them. But speaking seriously, the NATO member countries have greater interest in this cooperation than does the Russian Federation. If they sever these ties of cooperation, essentially it would have no real effect on us. We are ready to look at any solution, up to and including breaking off relations in full”.
Any threat to Russia is a losing deal. The “Great Armada” in the Black Sea will not survive an hour should a shell or rocket fall on the Russian troops. It’s another pair of shoes, what this confrontation may entail. We understand the apocalyptic prospects of such military contacts very well. But in no case we let anybody fire at us. It seems that Washington got absorbed in playing or forgot that Russia is not Yugoslavia or Iraq. It is useful to remind that under its new military doctrine Russia may use its nuclear arms the first in case of a critical threat to the security and life of our country. But the author believes that we will avoid such nightmare. Yet since the Caribbean crisis the mankind was never as close to this point of no return as it is today. And the problem is not only in the ambitions of the West. As our President said they could be dealt with.
There are two factors today that radically aggravate the military-political situation. Firstly, the adventurism of Saakashvili, secondly, the dirty games of those persons who are striving to stay in the White House and Pentagon after the election, and who are honeying up one of the presidential candidates now. In fact they are involved in the election campaign playing for aggravation of the situation to create favorable environment in the American society to elect this candidate as the President. It is not without the reason that Saakashvili is bragging of his twice-a-day telephone consultations not with actual US leaders but with McCain.
But what has Europe to do with it? Why should it suffer?
Saakashvili is eager to launch the second “Crusade”, for him it is a choice between the life and death, and not only political one. He may unleash this adventure in spite of the will of his masters placing them as hostages before the need to provide military assistance to him.
One thing sets wondering, how sober-minded politicians of Western Europe who always demonstrated wisdom and pragmatic approach found themselves in the company of various political adventurists. The author would like to believe that they will understand soon where they are drawn into and what for.
The USA and West are running up the flywheel of confrontation with Russia. Their warships entered the Black Sea, their politicians make rather loud and not always responsible statements. But Russia is not a country to speak with using the expressions: “If you do not… we will…” Russia has a thousand-year-long history, and since the cradle nobody (but we ourselves) succeeded in bringing it to its knees. Gentlemen, do you realize to what end you may lead the world? Purely and simple, are you tired of life?
There is an ancient maxim: “Before coming in, think how to come out” To come out not losing the face. Russia may help the West to come out of the political deadlock where it has driven in itself, saving its face. If the West demonstrates enough wisdom, pragmatic approach and political will. And such a solution on the part of Russia would be a rather ingenious alternative to any ultimatums.
After all, let me once again cite the words of our President: "The ball is in Europe’s court now, and if they want to worsen relations, they will of course achieve this. If they want to preserve our strategic relations – and I think this is absolutely in the interests of both Russia and Europe – then everything will be normal”
