March 11th marked thirteen years since Japan’s triple catastrophe: a 9-magnitude earthquake, a powerful tsunami and the 21st century major nuclear disaster, which destroyed the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant. Nature claimed the lives of 22,000 people back then, while the count of man-made disaster victims is still underway as the endless relief efforts go on and on.
National Police Agency figures released on March 8 put the death toll at 15,900, with 2,520 still missing. Official data suggest that the number of disaster-related deaths (diseases or suicide caused by stress) was 3,802 as of December last year, and it will grow further, unfortunately. The number of consultations provided by mental health centers set up in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures exceeded 17,000 last fiscal year alone. The population in these prefectures has decreased by 160,000 people over the past 13 years. A tragedy, to pull it all together.
Almost 29,000 refugees have yet to return to normal life. The total number of those displaced reached 470,000 people at its peak. Until now, seven municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture covering 300+ square kilometers are still closed over radiation. Either are territories around the station itself. And the challenge of its disposal seems to be eternal for Japan.
Just a reminder: the 2011 earthquake at the Fukushima-1 NPP designed by America’s General Electric, which also built three reactors, activated emergency protection, followed by the automatic turn-on of the backup power supply for the unit coolant system. However, generators that powered it were flooded by the tsunami, though installed at a height of 4 meters at ocean level, despite the probability of higher waves based on historical records and calculations. The subsequent shutdown of cooling system pumps led to a meltdown of three reactor cores and a powerful chemical explosion that could be seen live. There was a large-scale release of radioactive materials into the environment.
The accident measured up to two other major NPP accidents: Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. And Japan’s tasks related to overcoming the impact are just as large-scale.
First, the cleanup of areas exposed to radioactive contamination generated some 14 million cubic meters of soil accumulated in temporary storage facilities, awaiting decontamination and disposal. The place and way to do that is unclear because of radioactive cesium with its half-life amounting to 30 years or so. Anyway, horizons for this kind of work with enough safety are much further.
Second, one has to recycle the water used to cool emergency reactors still filled with nuclear fuel, which is getting heated by physical reactions. Over the years after the accident, more than 1.3 million tons of radionuclide-contaminated water had accumulated here. There was no more place to keep it, and last August Japan started dumping it into the Pacific Ocean — surely after thorough cleaning and controlled by the IAEA, whose experts said the discharges met environmental regulations.
Meanwhile, China and Russia, as well as a number of Pacific countries, came up with a quite strident reaction to NPP water release. China even imposed a painful import embargo on Japanese fish and seafood. The water, experts say, is all but pure. But consumers feel like eating from a plate that has been spat on: not dangerous but disgusting. And of course, no one has undertaken to predict the long-term consequences. Besides, this has been a tantalizing chance to tarnish Japan’s international prestige as the country itself wouldn't mind trading on other people’s problems.
Water discharge into the ocean is a matter of decades, and not only because two thirds of the accumulated liquid waste still requires decontamination. Reactor cooling never stops, and “dirty” water flows to the vacated containers. How long this will continue is anyone’s guess.
The last but not least issue is disposal of the nuclear power plant itself. Its owner and operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, has a rough completion plan, ranging between 2041 and 2051. No one knows what this implies exactly.
Fuel that was spent before the accident remains in the NPP territory and work with it is set to begin no earlier than 2027. But the key thing is to remove molten fuel rods and radioactive debris from damaged reactors — approximately 880 tons. In January this year, the operator company announced yet another, third postponement of work commencement. However, there is obviously not enough information to carry out the work. Robotic probes have provided some, but the state of melted debris remains largely unknown, and the amount could prove even greater. Also, data is lacking about the condition of load-bearing elements and reactor protective cases.
In general, the 30-40-year term outlined by the government looks very approximate. Some experts say removing all the melted fuel by 2051 is unfeasible, if at all, and the whole process may take 50 to 100 years in total. So awful!
