Israel gains control over most of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, Kiev aims to hold a summit with key European allies before Trump’s inauguration, and the Indian Defense Minister visits Russia to discuss military-technical cooperation. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 Vedomosti: Will Israel’s invasion of Syria spark a new conflict

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), during their ongoing offensive, have taken control of most of the buffer zone on the Golan Heights in southern Syria and are now positioned about 25 km southwest of Damascus, Reuters reported, citing sources. The military operation began immediately after the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. Simultaneously, the Israeli Air Force conducted massive attacks on Syria’s largest air bases and navy vessels, Vedomosti writes.

The Israeli troop movement deeper into Syrian territory was also reported by the Lebanese television channel Al Mayadeen, which is closely associated with the Hezbollah movement.

However, representatives of the Israeli military command have denied reports of their army advancing toward Damascus. Despite this, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has called on Israeli authorities to cease their troop movements in Syria.

The Israeli army entered the buffer zone to minimize potential risks of escalation stemming from Syria, according to Dmitry Maryasis, editor-in-chief of the magazine Economics of the Middle East, who spoke with Vedomosti. Following the armed opposition’s seizure of power in Syria, Israel lost a predictable governing counterpart as well as clear mechanisms and procedures to ensure border security, the expert noted.

From Israel’s perspective, its army’s incursion into southern Syria is a defensive measure aimed at mitigating or at least reducing future risks emanating from Syrian territory, agrees Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. She stated that the Israeli operation is a temporary, tactical step. Israel is not seeking to redraw Syrian borders in its favor and plans to withdraw from the demilitarized zone once a responsible, non-Islamist government emerges in Syria and the country stabilizes, she explained.

The duration of the Israeli army’s presence in Syria remains highly unpredictable due to ongoing instability, the expert added. "I doubt their presence in this area will result in serious Syrian-Israeli clashes in the near future. However, given the multitude of actors involved in the Syrian conflict, it is difficult to entirely rule out escalation. It is precisely this potential for conflict that drives Israel to take preemptive measures," she concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev plans summit to secure aid before Trump’s inauguration

Kiev intends to gather key European partners capable of ensuring, together with the United States, maximum reinforcement of Ukraine’s position both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, according to the press secretary of the President of Ukraine, Sergey Nikiforov. Such events are designed primarily to showcase the diplomatic activity of the Kiev authorities—despite the absence of substantial content—as the future US administration, like the current one, appears to lack a clear strategy for addressing Ukraine’s situation, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Vladimir Zelensky’s recent criticisms of the US president-elect, Donald Trump—stating that he is currently unable to address Ukraine’s security concerns—have been replaced in Kiev by more conciliatory remarks about a summit aimed at uniting Western allies to further bolster the Kiev government.

However, Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Zelensky’s problem lies not in insufficient communication with Western allies, but in their inability or unwillingness to provide the Ukrainian president with what he seeks. He also suggested they are unlikely to offer any new insights at the upcoming summit.

"There is no substantive content to such events. They are seemingly convened only to project an image of Kiev’s active diplomacy on the eve of what appears to be an impending defeat. Meanwhile, the situation on the front is increasingly unfavorable for Ukraine, and the capacity of Western nations to support it has largely been exhausted," Silayev added.

The expert further pointed out that the incoming US administration currently lacks a concrete plan for Ukraine. "In such conditions, it cannot be ruled out that Trump may attempt to enhance aid to Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia. However, Ukrainian leaders interpret developments through their own lens. For them, even discussions about reducing foreign aid are perceived as catastrophic. Consequently, their reactions are frantic, erratic, and inconsistent, as evidenced by their proposal for yet another meeting of Western allies," Silayev concluded.

Vedomosti: Indian Defense Minister arrives in Russia to talk military-technical cooperation despite sanctions

On the second day of his visit to Moscow, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh participated in the 21st session of the Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, co-chaired by the chiefs of the two nations’ armed forces, Vedomosti writes. According to Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Russia and India "are connected by a strong, time-tested friendship founded on mutual respect."

After meeting with the Defense Ministry, Singh proceeded to the Kremlin, where he was welcomed by President Vladimir Putin. During their discussions, the parties continued to address military-technical cooperation and the broader global landscape.

In the realm of military-technical cooperation, India is careful not to rely entirely on a single partner, explained Olga Solodkova, associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies in the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics. India favors Russian arms supplies due to long-standing ties and a rich history of cooperation.

However, India’s dependence on Russia has decreased, the expert noted. This shift stems from growing ties between Russia and China, with which India maintains contentious relations. China holds a significant economic edge over India and offers opportunities that India cannot match, Solodkova explained. Consequently, Russia often gravitates toward China, prompting India to cautiously explore deeper cooperation with the United States, she added.

India prioritizes its own strategic interests and resists external pressures, said Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Institute of Asian and African Countries. This approach underpins India’s diversification of its arms suppliers. The ongoing preference for Russian weapons indicates their reliability and effectiveness. New Delhi seeks to maximize the benefits of military-technical cooperation, despite facing substantial pressure from the United States, which is actively vying for a foothold in the Indian defense market, Volkhonsky remarked.

Izvestia: EU plans to discuss future of Syrian refugees

The Syrian refugee issue is expected to be added to the agenda of the upcoming European Parliament plenary session, Member of the European Parliament Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. He expressed his group’s concern over the possibility of a new wave of Syrian refugees, while some European nations hope the number of migrants will decrease.

Although the Syrian crisis is not currently listed on the agenda for the European Parliament session, which starts on December 16, it will likely be included as a topic for discussion, Mariani told Izvestia.

"It is highly probable that there will be an urgent debate. On the first day of the plenary session, there is always an opportunity to propose an emergency debate. Syria, Georgia, and Romania are not on the agenda right now, but I believe these topics will be discussed urgently," he said.

On December 10, the armed opposition that seized power in Syria appointed Mohammed al-Bashir, former head of the so-called Syrian Salvation Government in the Idlib de-escalation zone, to form a new cabinet. However, the situation in the country remains highly unstable, with no guarantees that Syria will avoid plunging into a full-scale civil war, given the fragmented nature of the opposition and the absence of a strong central authority, Izvestia reports.

Several European countries have responded swiftly to the developments in Syria. Germany, for instance, has suspended asylum applications from Syrian refugees, citing a shift to a more ‘democratic’ government in Damascus. France and Austria are preparing to adopt similar measures. Experts, however, are skeptical that Syrians living in Europe will willingly return to their homeland.

According to French political scientist Nikola Mirkovic, Brussels and EU member states are operating under the assumption that those who fled Assad’s regime should now want to return. "They enjoy a higher standard of living in Europe, and most will never choose to leave. They prefer to remain and benefit from the generous social programs provided by the European Union," Mirkovic told Izvestia.

Izvestia: The future of Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues

Oil and gas revenues to Russia’s budget increased by 25.7%, reaching 10.341 trillion rubles ($100.34 bln) from January to November, the Finance Ministry reported. By 2025, this figure is projected to rise to 11 trillion rubles ($106.74 bln), accounting for about 27% of total revenues. The ministry told Izvestia that this trend reflects the growing sustainability of the budget. Experts interviewed by the newspaper believe the new sanctions announced at the end of November are unlikely to significantly affect oil revenues.

Due to stronger GDP growth and higher inflation, non-oil and gas revenues in 2024 are expected to exceed forecasts by almost 0.5 trillion rubles ($4.85 bln), chief economist at BCS World of Investments Ilya Fedorov told the newspaper.

Revenues, compared to expenses, at the end of the year are not expected to deviate much from the 11-month data, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency Anton Tabakh told Izvestia. He also noted that the impact of the new sanctions announced in late November is unlikely to be substantial, while the weakening ruble’s effects will be fully realized by early 2025. "We expect a comparable increase in revenues across both categories, at about 25-26%," the expert stated.

The significance of oil and gas revenues is predicted to decline further in the medium term, said Vladimir Klimanov, head of the Center for Regional Policy at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. The 2025 federal budget law sets oil and gas revenues at 27% of total income.

The growth in non-oil and gas revenues can be attributed to rising prices for mineral resources and other export commodities, according to Alexander Shneiderman, head of sales and customer service at Alfa-Forex.

"Sanctions have severely limited Russia in some areas. For instance, diamond and timber exports have fallen. However, there has been a reorientation: supplies in restricted categories are growing, and their prices are rising. For example, mineral fertilizers — in terms of export volumes, Russia has returned to 2021 levels, capturing an 18% share of the global market," the expert explained.

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