The leader of Russia’s ruling party, Dmitry Medvedev, discusses the situation in Ukraine with China’s Xi Jinping as the Houthis escalate attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, the crisis in Damascus emboldens caliphate supporters. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines in Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Vedomosti: Russia’s Medvedev discusses Ukraine with Xi

On Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of the United Russia party and Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, held talks in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. During the meeting, Medvedev delivered a personal message from Russian President Vladimir Putin and stated that he had discussed key issues, including the situation in Ukraine and the Syrian crisis, with Xi.

Medvedev reiterated that Russia remains open to resuming negotiations with Ukraine, but only under conditions that reflect the realities on the ground. These terms align with the proposals outlined by Putin during a June meeting with the Russian Foreign Ministry. At the time, Putin insisted on Ukraine's neutrality, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and the removal of Western sanctions on Russia.

Meanwhile, China continues to adhere to its three guiding principles regarding the Ukraine crisis: avoiding the escalation of the conflict, preventing any expansion of the battlefield, and refraining from actions that fuel tensions. Xi assured Medvedev that China would actively work with the international community to create favorable conditions for de-escalation and resolution.

During his visit, Medvedev acted as the leader of Russia’s ruling party, Alexey Maslov, director of Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, told Vedomosti. Maslov explained that the ruling parties of Russia and China have long maintained a close dialogue on matters of state administration, security, economic cooperation, and bilateral relations. This interaction, Maslov emphasized, is framed as inter-state collaboration rather than solely inter-party communication.

The potential implications of Donald Trump’s return to power in the US might also have been discussed, the expert speculated. "The coordination between Russia and China on resolving the Ukraine conflict is highly significant," Maslov remarked. Medvedev’s visit also comes amid Western speculation that the Ukraine crisis could create tensions between Moscow and Beijing, he added. "It is therefore important to signal unity and show that such a scenario is unlikely at present," Maslov concluded.

Izvestia: Houthis intensify attacks on Israel amid Lebanon truce

The Houthis have escalated their attacks on Israel after a truce was announced in Lebanon, the Yemen-based rebel group Ansar Allah told Izvestia. According to the group, these actions aim to fill the void left after Hezbollah halted its shelling of Israel. A few days ago, US naval vessels were targeted with missiles and drones, the Houthis claimed. The group also called on Syria's new leadership to join forces against Israel.

Yemeni political analyst Sand al-Sayyadi explained to Izvestia that the ongoing Houthi campaign, particularly amid the recent turmoil in Syria, demonstrates the ambitions of their military and political leaders to bring the Gaza conflict back to the forefront of international attention. "They are signaling to both regional and global players that, despite mounting pressures, Yemen retains the ability to shift the balance of power in the Middle East and ensure that Israel will not face Gaza alone," the expert noted.

In recent weeks, there has been increased diplomatic activity focused on brokering a ceasefire in Gaza, even as Houthi attacks intensify. The Palestinian radical group Hamas recently received a new ceasefire proposal from Egypt, including terms for the release of hostages held in Gaza, Hamas’s representative in Lebanon, Ahmed Abd al-Hadi, told Izvestia.

For the first time, Hamas has indicated it might accept a pact allowing Israeli forces to temporarily remain in Gaza after hostilities end, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported. The proposed agreement covers the Philadelphi Corridor, which lies between Egypt and Gaza, and the Netzarim Corridor within Gaza.

"There is no need for Israeli troops to occupy the Philadelphi Corridor, as this offers minimal strategic or security benefits for Israel," Egyptian international relations expert Tareq al-Bardisi told Izvestia. "[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu appears intent on undermining a deal that could facilitate a ceasefire," al-Bardisi concluded.

Kommersant: Damascus crisis emboldens caliphate supporters

Kurdish forces in Syria have announced a suspension of their operations against the Islamic State (or IS, outlawed in Russia). The militias controlling the northeastern part of the Arab republic, who have served as the United States’ key partners "on the ground" in the fight against terrorism, have shifted their focus to defending against attacks by groups aligned with Turkey.

Until recently, IS activities were limited to sporadic subversive attacks from its hideouts in the Syrian desert. However, the group now appears to be attempting to reclaim control over several areas.

Tensions in the Middle East have historically created favorable conditions for IS. For example, the group’s propaganda efforts sought to exploit the war that erupted in the Gaza Strip last year, aiming to mobilize "potential lone actors" to carry out attacks, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted in a report.

So far, an Afghanistan-based branch of the global terrorist network has shown early signs of renewed activity. Militants from the so-called Wilayat Khorasan organization (designated as a terrorist group and banned in Russia) were blamed for the assassination of Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, the minister for refugees in the Afghan government, on Wednesday. This attack, carried out by a suicide bomber, marks the first assassination attempt on a Taliban minister since 2021, when the Taliban (also banned in Russia) seized power.

In an interview with Kommersant, Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, said the recent terrorist act in Kabul was unlikely directly linked to the broader Middle East situation. "The murder of a well-guarded Haqqani raises significant questions about IS’s capabilities in Afghanistan. Carrying out such an attack would have required detailed intelligence about the minister’s itinerary," the expert said. According to him, the incident may indicate Wilayat Khorasan’s growing infiltration of the Taliban’s ranks.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev plans to sustain military efforts for six more months

As Ukraine intensifies its strikes on Russian infrastructure, Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko has outlined combat plans for the immediate future. The minister emphasized the Ukrainian military’s capabilities, supported by defense spending that now exceeds 26% of the nation’s GDP. For context, defense budgets in Russia and NATO countries typically account for 7.9% and around 2% of GDP, respectively.

"Kiev is engaged in intense hostilities and still holds a strategic advantage - the occupied territories in Russia’s Kursk Region. Ukrainian President [Vladimir] Zelensky hopes to use these areas as leverage in potential peace negotiations. However, I doubt Moscow will engage while Russian territories remain under occupation," military analyst and retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev told the publication. Current estimates suggest Ukrainian forces control approximately 3% of the Kursk Region, while the Kursk front accounts for just 2.5% of the engagement line in the broader special military operation zone. Still, Netkachev warns that Ukraine’s resistance is unlikely to cease even if their forces are driven out of Kursk.

Another military analyst, retired Colonel Vladimir Popov, echoed these concerns. "Ukraine’s defense industry continues to enhance the capabilities of its drones and long-range missiles," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The Zelensky administration asserts that it developed strategic weapons last year capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) inside Russian territory. Additionally, Ukraine depends heavily on Western support, with France, Britain, and Germany pledging to deliver more long-range missiles," he noted, describing this as a significant concern.

Support from other nations remains consistent. On Wednesday, the Canadian parliament approved $587 million in military aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Balkan outlets report that over 70 Croatian-made M-84A4 tanks will soon be delivered to Kiev. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal also announced that Germany plans to transfer a sixth IRIS-T air defense system and additional Patriot missile launchers in the coming days.

Popov cautioned against assumptions that a change in US leadership—specifically, Donald Trump’s potential return—might lead to reduced military aid and Ukraine’s defeat. "Kiev retains formidable military capabilities, which must not be underestimated. Furthermore, Ukraine has numerous allies outside of the United States," he emphasized.

Izvestia: Market bets on CBR rate hike to 23% in December

The Bank of Russia is expected to raise its key rate to 23% at its meeting on December 20, according to half of the 28 analysts interviewed by Izvestia. Another seven experts are evenly split between predicting a 2-percentage-point or 1-percentage-point hike, while five believe the regulator will increase the rate to 22%, according to the latest consensus forecast.

Two of the interviewed experts do not rule out that the CBR could implement a more aggressive tightening to 24-25%, and no market participants expect the interest rate to remain at the current level of 21%.

The forecasts come as inflation has risen to 9% in December and continues to grow. Pavel Biryukov, an economist at Gazprombank, attributes the rise in consumer prices to an overheated economy, where consumption has grown 20% faster than the production of goods and services.

The recent depreciation of the ruble will also influence the key rate decision, argues Ilya Fyodorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments. Over the past month, the Russian currency has weakened against the dollar by 7%, trading above 100 rubles per dollar since November 20. The volatile ruble exchange rate is likely to worsen public inflation expectations, which the CBR will consider during its meeting next Friday, he adds.

Denis Popov, head of analytics and expertise at PSB, says the base case scenario is that the regulator will conclude its monetary tightening cycle this month.

While the CBR might hike the key rate to 24-25%, this level should serve as the upper limit, insists Olga Belenkaya, chief macroeconomic analyst at Finam.

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