The EU continues delivering military aid to Kiev amid anticipated changes in the US policy under Trump; Israel and Hamas may be on the verge of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip; and Zelensky is developing another negotiation plan with Russia. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS news agency.
The volume of military aid provided by EU nations to Kiev from February 2022 to the present day reached 47.3 bln euro, the European Commission confirmed to Izvestia. Simultaneously, the total amount of resources allocated to Ukraine during this period amounted to 130 bln euro. Against the backdrop of a potential reduction in military support for Kiev from the US, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced that in 2025 it will receive an additional 30 bln euro in total. Analysts highlighted that the EU is incapable of substituting a certain range of weapons supplied by the US. Nevertheless, it is improbable that the states will completely cease providing the country with arms, considering the profits that the conflict in Ukraine generates for their military-industrial sector.
EU nations have provided Ukraine with military aid valued at 47.3 bln euro, of which Kiev received 41.2 bln euro directly from member countries and 6.1 bln euro - within the framework of the Ukraine Facility, Lead Spokeswoman for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the European Commission Anitta Hipper confirmed.
"Information on military assistance provided by the EU and its member states has been updated this month. The total volume of aid to Ukraine is 130 bln euro, and this figure continues to rise to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression," she told Izvestia.
Regarding direct arms supplies, the Europeans can partially compensate for US military aid but not entirely. For instance, they cannot supply Kiev with an adequate quantity of high-precision long-range missiles, military analyst, junior research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Vadim Koroshchupov explained to Izvestia.
"These are primarily high-precision long-range weapons - cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and multiple launch rocket systems. Such equipment is produced not in millions but in hundreds, sometimes in dozens annually. Since the 1990s, the United States has amassed a substantial stockpile of such weapons, but Europe has not. Over the past 20-30 years, Europeans have started to develop the sector of high-precision long-range systems, but it remains in its early stages," he added.
The EU's concerns are evident, given that the scale of US military support to Kiev since February 2022 has exceeded $62 bln, including $1 bln allocated in early December as part of the 22nd aid package. And despite all this, the Ukrainian armed forces are gradually losing ground in critical areas, Izvestia reports.
Vedomosti: Israel and Hamas near a truce
Israel and the Islamist Palestinian movement Hamas have made a notable breakthrough in negotiations and are close to finalizing a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip soon, according to Reuters. The dialogue is being conducted with the mediation of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. The US is represented by CIA Director William Burns - he traveled to Doha on December 18 for talks with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to address the remaining differences, Vedomosti writes.
There was also some optimism in the statement by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on December 16, in which he noted that the agreement with Hamas was "closer than ever". In turn, Hamas representatives confirmed "serious and positive talks" with the Israeli side in Doha, but reaching a ceasefire agreement will be possible if "the occupiers stop introducing new conditions."
Associated Press and Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that the ceasefire plan will be implemented in three stages and may begin even before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. In the first phase, which will last six to eight weeks, Hamas will release about 30 hostages in exchange for the release of 100 Palestinians from Israeli prisons. Israel will withdraw its troops from the enclave, except for the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip along the border between Egypt and Gaza. The potential deal also includes provisions for increasing the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
The Israelis are not yet so optimistic about the likelihood of a quick deal with Hamas, research fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Lyudmila Samarskaya told Vedomosti. "Apparently, Israel is ready to withdraw from most of Gaza, but on the condition that they retain control over the corridors in the center and south of the enclave. The ongoing ability for Israel to ensure security remains fundamental," the expert added.
Although positive signals have emerged in the negotiation process, the key contradictions between Israel and Hamas have not yet been resolved, Middle East expert Ruslan Suleimanov told the newspaper. In theory, the parties could conclude a short-term ceasefire with the possibility of its extension, he added. "Within this framework, concessions are possible. But at the same time, Hamas is demanding guarantees of an extension of the first stage. Ensuring a mechanism for monitoring and extending the ceasefire is one of the challenging issues on which the parties are not yet ready to relax their positions," the expert noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Zelensky drafts a new negotiation plan
Kiev needs a clear strategy and a strong position for negotiations with Moscow, Vladimir Zelensky said. According to him, a "strong America and Europe" will help bolster the Ukrainian position. Meanwhile, members of his team have declared negotiations with Russia impossible. Contradictory statements by Kiev representatives suggest that they intend to act based on an improvised scenario, so their words should not be taken seriously, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Zelensky is trying to develop another document in addition to the "Victory Plan," which proposed the active involvement of Western partners in the military conflict with Russia, and the "Resilience Plan," which focused on the use of internal resources, the newspaper writes. According to an interview published on Wednesday by a French publication, the new plan should be centered on the upcoming negotiations for the settlement of the military conflict with Russia.
At the same time, agreements with the Kremlin would be possible only after a clear roadmap is created and on the condition that Kiev is in a strong position, the Ukrainian leader explained. He also warned that Ukraine does not intend to delegate the right to negotiate with Russia to any other country, including the United States.
"Recently, Zelensky has been constantly making different, often mutually exclusive statements. Although, there are political scientists who take his words seriously and claim that the Ukrainian leader has either softened or hardened his previous position," prominent expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Oleg Nemensky told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The current leadership in Kiev appears to be focused on preserving the situation and avoiding recognition of the new realities and challenges caused by changes at the front and in the international arena. However, the future course of events could be largely determined by the ability of the Ukrainian leaders to adapt to evolving circumstances, the expert added.
Kommersant: India and China advancing towards resolution of decades-long Himalayan dispute
Representatives of the top leadership of China and India held a meeting on the border issue in Beijing on Wednesday, discussing ways to enhance bilateral relations based on the agreements reached during the meeting of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in Kazan. The improved ties between the two Asian nations, both friendly to Russia, after many years of confrontation and military standoff in the Himalayas, have become one of the major foreign policy events of the year, significantly easing the work of BRICS and SCO and the tasks of Russian diplomacy in Asia, Kommersant writes.
The first high-level meeting between China and India on the border issue in five years, attended by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, reinvigorated dialogue between the two leading Asian powers on the territorial dispute, which has remained unresolved since the 1962 war.
According to Chinese Foreign Ministry official Lin Jian, China is ready to work with India to realize the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries. At the same time, the Indian side also made it clear that it expects substantial progress from the Beijing meeting and the resumption of dialogue.
The process of normalization of bilateral relations began in October this year, when Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan. Given the positive developments between the two countries that started in Kazan, the meeting of their top leaders in Beijing marked a new breakthrough on this path, aimed at making the de-escalation lasting, Kommersant writes.
According to Indian expert Shastri Ramachandran, "the renewed closeness between India and China after years of military confrontation in the Himalayas has become one of the most important foreign policy events of this year, significantly streamlining efforts in the multilateral formats of BRICS and SCO, as well as the tasks of Russian diplomacy in Asia."
Vedomosti: Indonesia, EAEU set sights on free trade by 2025
Friendship between Russia and Indonesia has stood the test of time, Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Antonio Morato Tavares said on December 18 at a conference in Moscow dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral relations. The diplomat emphasized the importance of diplomatic and economic support from the USSR in the early years of independence, which aided the internal economic development of his country, Vedomosti writes.
The ambassador told Vedomosti about current trends in modern relations between the two countries, focusing on trade. In 2024, the trade turnover between the two countries could reach $3.5-4 bln. According to the ambassador, such figures are a "good start," but do not fully reflect the potential of the economies of both countries. He expressed hope that an agreement on a free trade zone between the Eurasian Union (EAEU) and Indonesia could be finalized as early as 2025.
In terms of political interaction, the ambassador voiced hope that Indonesia would join BRICS as a full member to jointly "advance the interests of the countries of the global south." Indonesia officially became a BRICS partner country in November.
Military-technical cooperation has been an important facet of Russia-Indonesia relations, but so far Jakarta has declined to sign new contracts due to the threat of US sanctions, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Alexander Korolev told Vedomosti.
According to Korolev, the agreement on a free trade zone between Indonesia and the EAEU is almost ready to be signed in 2025. The expert also highlighted Islamic banking, the development of educational ties, digital and artificial intelligence, the environment, and the supply of floating nuclear power plants as areas of future collaboration between Moscow and Jakarta.
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