The motives behind Ukrainian attacks on Russian regions, the easing of sanctions on purchases of Russian gas, and the Bank of Russia retains the key rate. These stories topped the headlines in Monday’s newspapers across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Izvestia: What is Kiev regime attempting by escalating attacks on Russian regions

Using intense attacks on civilian facilities in Rylsk, Kazan, and other Russian cities, the Kiev regime is reportedly trying to bargain for leverage within potential talks after Donald Trump’s administration takes office in the US, experts believe. In recent days, Russia’s border-adjacent Kursk Region came under attack by long-range projectiles, while drones targeted residential buildings and industrial facilities in Kazan and the Oryol Region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already asserted that the adversary, seeking to defeat Russia, will regret this and encounter even greater destruction.

At this time, the Kiev regime needs attention-grabbing pretexts to demonstrate its "power" and "capabilities," Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, said, explaining the motivations behind such a widespread strike. This is not even about achieving any military-strategic gains or taking over the initiative within the special military operation.

"Justifications are required that can be used in the media to show that Ukraine is capable of something," Denisov explained. "Among other things, this is driven by Zelensky’s fear of Trump’s future initiatives, which may be quite distressing to Kiev, as well as by the declining level of consolidation around Ukraine from the collective West," he explained.

According to Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University, the strike on Kazan should be seen as the Kiev regime’s continued effort to escalate tensions with the incoming Trump administration.

"Broadly, this is an attempt to change the logic of the negotiation process proposed by Trump," the expert told Izvestia. "It seems that other provocations may follow, as well as, I think, more provocative statements regarding European leaders, particularly Viktor Orban and representatives from the Trump administration," Loshkarev added.

In his view, Zelensky continues coordinating with the departing US administration and is frantically trying to create obstacles for the potential negotiation process.

Kommersant: Payments eased for foreign importers of Russian raw materials

Foreign buyers of Russian gas have started receiving permits for working with Gazprombank, which had been restricted by US sanctions. Turkey and Hungary have already secured exemptions, even though the US Department of the Treasury has not yet issued a relevant license. Meanwhile, Russia has introduced a transitional period for foreign gas purchasers to facilitate their interaction with Gazprombank. Analysts believe that other countries may also obtain similar exemptions.

Alexey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund, noted that no official details or instructions have yet been received from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury. "However, providing exemptions by request or demand of US partners is a standard practice," he said. The expert highlighted that, when Gazprombank was included in the SDN List, an exemption was made for payments to Sakhalin 2 for LNG, mostly purchased by Japan and South Korea. Subsequently, exemptions were granted for goods and services in the field of peaceful nuclear development. Nonetheless, according to Grivach, certain risks persist. "Just as the Americans made an exemption, if this is really true, they can just as easily revoke it," he noted.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, shared a similar view. He noted that the situation varied slightly for Hungary and Turkey: Budapest had to pay via Gazprombank, while Turkey, not being on the list of unfriendly countries, was not bound by such an obligation. Nonetheless, there were few options left, the expert added.

According to Yushkov, the situation moving forward will largely depend on the determination of European countries to maintain their right to continue buying Russian gas, as well as on the stance the US will adopt under the Trump administration. In his opinion, other countries, in addition to Turkey and Hungary, may also seek and receive exemptions from the sanctions.

Media: Russian Central Bank’s decision to retain key rate surprises market

The Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors opted to maintain the key rate at 21% per annum during its December 20 meeting. The Bank of Russia indicated it requires time to evaluate the stability of the cooling-off period for loans and the economy’s adaptation to new conditions. As a result, it decided to pause further rate hikes, Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina stated at a press conference.

The decision surprised analysts, Renaissance Capital noted. They suggested it signals a shift in the regulator’s approach – from a "full and uncompromising" fight against inflation to a more measured policy (though inflation targeting remains in focus).

Despite its unexpected nature, the Central Bank’s decision appears prudent and takes into account the risks of an overextended loan and economy cooling-off period in 2025, Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management, observed.

Izvestia reported that Sergey Mironov, leader of the Just Russia faction, stated on his Telegram channel that "harsh and substantiated criticism worked. The Central Bank did not raise the key rate, and this was a New Year’s gift of sorts for our economy." "But this is just the beginning. Now the key rate should be reduced, and alternative instruments to fight inflation must be employed," he added.

Vedomosti: Trump pushes NATO to boost military spending to 5% of GDP

Representatives of US President-elect Donald Trump’s team informed European NATO allies that he intends to demand defense expenditures increase to 5% of GDP—a level no NATO country currently approaches—the Financial Times reported, citing two sources familiar with the negotiations. Another anonymous official suggested that Trump might settle for 3.5% of GDP, linking it to a review of trade practices to favor the US.

Trump’s team’s demands may serve as a bargaining tactic, according to Igor Shkrobtak, senior researcher at the Institute of US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. He noted that this approach is "overboard" for any NATO country and unlikely given Europe’s current economic climate. The expert described Trump’s approach as a typical strategy to initiate dialogue from a position of strength.

The future US administration almost certainly plans to push European allies to increase defense budgets, stated Yulia Semke, a leading expert at the HSE Center for Comprehensive European Studies. In her view, achieving 5% of GDP for defense spending in the short term is nearly impossible and, over time, would require "uncomfortable domestic political decisions." Additionally, European public opinion currently resists heightened military expenditures.

According to Semke, most likely, the level of 5% of GDP may be seen as a prospective goal in NATO but not a necessary requirement.

Izvestia: Russia drops to 13th place among EU main trade partners

Russia has fallen to the 13th position among the EU’s key trade partners, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union told Izvestia. It stated that this decline was caused by sanctions, which ultimately impacted the EU far more than Russia. The diplomats also projected a further decrease in trade by 2025. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to strongly oppose the sanctions. According to reports, on December 19, he announced that he will wait for Donald Trump’s inauguration before deciding whether or not to endorse the EU restrictions against Russia. Experts suggest the possibility of personal agreements between the Hungarian leader and the US president-elect on the issue.

Hungary may delay the adoption of new sanctions at the EU level until Washington clarifies its foreign policy stance, said leading researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Oleg Nemensky.

"It is quite plausible that Orban and Trump have reached some personal understandings. The Hungarian prime minister’s primary goal appears to be stalling for time until the new political dynamics take shape," he told Izvestia.

"Sensible European politicians and business leaders clearly recognize that the sanctions have failed to achieve their stated objectives, as they have harmed the EU more than Russia. Unfortunately, the European bureaucracy remains committed to a confrontational anti-Russian agenda and seems determined to dismantle the remaining economic links with Russia," the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union stated.

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